NBA DFS: Use pick-and-roll data to build winning lineups
DFS is so mainstream now that nearly everyone constructing lineups takes matchups into account.
The average daily Fantasy player has a Defense vs. Position Chart (or DvP) of some sort. DvP can help you find advantageous matchups, but it also can mislead you.
Point guards Ben Simmons and Trae Young possess completely different skill sets. But DvP would depict a matchup against a team that struggles to defend point guards as equally beneficial to Simmons and Young, when that is clearly not the case.
That's where pick-and-roll data can come in. Like player touches, pick-and-roll data is freely available on NBA.com and correlates highly with daily Fantasy production, yet is not as widely embraced as matchup factors like pace or DvP.
Pick-and-roll scoring up 19.5 percent
NBA teams have increased their use of pick and roll for three straight seasons; over that span, the league average for pick-and-roll scoring is up 19.5 percent.
The team that led the NBA in points per game out of the pick and roll in the 2017-18 season would rank just eighth this season. And with the pick and roll growing ever more popular, understanding which pick-and-roll matchups to target and which to avoid can give you a huge edge in DFS.
This information isn't relevant every single night, but it will help you identify players in unexpectedly advantageous matchups.
Exploit this pick-and-roll defense
Utah ranks in the bottom-10 in pace and its defense is among the NBA's best. The Jazz have allowed the eighth-fewest DraftKings points per game to the point guard position. Most DFS players aren't looking to roster point guards against the Jazz -- that's a big mistake.
Did you realize no team has allowed more points to opposing pick-and-roll ballhandlers than Utah? The Nets' drop coverage cleared the way for Brooklyn to allow an NBA-high point total to pick-and-roll ball handlers each of the previous three seasons, but even the Nets can't match Utah's porous pick-and-roll coverage in 2019-20.
If you just focused on DvP when considering a point guard against the Jazz, you would have missed out on performances like Damian Lillard's 79 DraftKings points against them. You might not have cashed in on Kyrie Irving's 63.25 against Utah either.
Most people don't have the time to dig through pick-and-roll data. So, I collected the best and worst pick-and-roll defenses, as well as the best and worst pick-and-roll scorers, for you.
I also examined each of the top pick-and-roll scorers' game logs to see how they performed when facing the worst pick-and-roll defenses. In that 25-player sample, the average DraftKings point total rose 2.8 points when facing one of the NBA's bottom-10 pick-and-roll defenses. Of the 25 players sampled, 18 saw their average point total increase.
Worst pick-and-roll defenses
These teams have allowed the most points to the pick and roll this season. The list encompasses both the points allowed to pick-and-roll ballhandlers and roll men.
Utah Jazz -- 31.9 ppg allowed
New Orleans Pelicans -- 31.1
Milwaukee Bucks -- 31
Brooklyn Nets -- 30.2
Memphis Grizzlies -- 29.9
Cleveland Cavaliers -- 29.4
Portland Trail Blazers -- 29.3
Minnesota Timberwolves -- 29.2
Philadelphia 76ers -- 29.1
LA Clippers -- 29
Best Matchups for Pick-and-Roll Ball Handlers
These teams are listed in order of most points allowed to pick-and-roll ball handlers, followed by their DvP (Defense vs. Position) ranking against the PG, SG, and SF positions. Find up-to-date pick and roll data, which covers scoring but not assists and turnovers, on NBA.com.
Utah Jazz -- 23.9. DvP -- PG (22nd) SG (29th) SF (27th)
Brooklyn Nets -- 23.7. DvP -- PG (4th) SG (18th) SF (22nd)
New Orleans Pelicans -- 22.5. DvP -- PG (5th) SG (8th) SF (17th)
Minnesota Timberwolves -- 22.0. DvP -- PG (8th) SG (7th) SF (12th)
Memphis Grizzlies -- 21.7. DvP -- PG (7th) SG (5th) SF (14th)
Philadelphia 76ers -- 21.4. DvP -- PG (25th) SG (30th) SF (24th)
Milwaukee Bucks -- 21.2. DvP -- PG (17th) SG (20th) SF (26th)
Los Angeles Clippers -- 21.1. DvP -- PG (14th) SG (15th) SF (20th)
Washington Wizards -- 20.8. DvP -- PG (6th) SG (1st) SF (5th)
Portland Trail Blazers -- 20.7. DvP -- PG (1st) SG (22nd) SF (10th)
Looking at this list, we see a few teams that have defended guards very well overall, which will scare off the average DFS player because the DvP chart displays it as a negative matchup. Specifically, the Jazz, 76ers, Bucks and Clippers are viewed as negative matchups.
Targeting these teams with players who thrive in the pick and roll can give you a nice edge in tournaments, as most will not look further than the DvP chart.
Worst matchups for pick-and-roll ball handlers
These teams are listed in order of fewest points allowed to pick-and-roll ball handlers, followed by their DvP against the PG, SG, and SF positions.
Chicago Bulls -- 9.6. DvP -- PG (30th)
Charlotte Hornets -- 13.3. DvP -- PG (24th)
Toronto Raptors -- 14. DvP -- PG (23rd)
Houston Rockets -- 14.6. DvP -- PG (11th)
Denver Nuggets -- 14.7. DvP -- PG (21st)
Most effective pick-and-roll ball handlers
These numbers are up-to-date as of February 1, and are subject to change as the season goes on. The latest data can be found here.
Glossary:
- GP = Games Played
- Poss = Total P&R Possessions
- PPP = Points Per Possession
- PTS = Total P&R Points Scored
- EFG% = Effective Field Goal Percentage as a P&R Ball Handler
- Percentile = PPP Percentile Rank Among All P&R Ball Handlers
- P&R Ave = Average DraftKings Point Total When Facing a Bottom-10 P&R Defense
- P&R +/- = Difference between a Player's 'P&R Ave' and Season-Long DraftKings Average
The table also displays the player's average DraftKings points (P&R Ave) in games against the teams just mentioned, as well as how their average in those matchups compared to all other games (P&R +/-).
Kyrie Irving's average immediately jumps off the page, but it's worth noting it came in just a six-game sample due to his lengthy mid-season absence. Still, Irving has thrived in Kenny Atkinson's system, upping his points per game as a pick-and-roll ball handler from 6.8 last season with the Celtics to 12.5 in Brooklyn.
This shouldn't come as a surprise, as we saw the same from D'Angelo Russell in Brooklyn last season. D-Lo averaged just 5.4 points per game on 0.76 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball handler for the Lakers in 2016-17, but ranked third in the NBA in pick-and-roll scoring last season with the Nets.
Irving actually ranks fourth in the NBA in pick-and-roll points per game, while teammate Spencer Dinwiddie ranks fifth. So whether Irving is healthy or not, there is likely to be a Brooklyn point guard you can trust in DFS when facing a poor pick-and-roll defense.
I was shocked to see Damian Lillard's average come in below 50 DK points in positive pick-and-roll matchups, because I can remember monster performances of 78.5 DK points against Utah and 75 against Brooklyn. A deeper look at his game log revealed an unusual amount of blowouts, as his minutes were affected in five of the 13 games. Over a larger sample, I would expect Lillard's average to balance out.
Another important takeaway is that a high pick-and-roll possession count is more predictive in positive pick-and-roll matchups than a high pick-and-roll efficiency ranking. It makes sense; Kemba Walker is a far more efficient pick-and-roll scorer than Trae Young, but Young is going to see five more pick-and-roll possessions per game.
The additional possessions are extremely valuable when they come against the league's worst pick-and-roll defenses. That helps explain why average pick-and-roll scorers like Devonte' Graham, Ja Morant, and Russell have seen bigger per-game boosts in these matchups than more efficient scorers like Walker or Chris Paul.
Of the 14 point guards studied, only four did not exceed expectations when they drew one of these favorable matchups, which is a pretty common theme throughout the other positions studied. In fact, only eight of 25 players studied did not exceed expectations in favorable pick-and-roll matchups, displaying the weight this research carries.
Of the 11 most efficient scoring non-point guards in the pick and roll, only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, DeMar DeRozan, and LeBron James didn't exceed expectations.
Donovan Mitchell ranks fourth among all players in pick-and-roll scoring. He was fourth last season too, and he's upped his effective field goal percentage and points per possession since then.
Worst pick-and-roll scorers
Not everyone is able to create scoring opportunities out of the pick and roll though. Here are 10 noteworthy players who have been surprisingly inefficient as scorers while handling the ball in the pick and roll.
Ben Simmons -- 80 points on 0.76 points per possession (35th percentile)
Dejounte Murray -- 87 points on 0.69 points per possession (25th percentile)
Lonzo Ball -- 99 points on 0.60 points per possession (13rd percentile)
Elfrid Payton -- 112 points on 0.71 points per possession (27th percentile)
Shabazz Napier -- 120 points on 0.81 points per possession (45th percentile)
Russell Westbrook -- 124 points on 0.84 points per possession (52nd percentile)
Ricky Rubio -- 174 points on 0.72 points per possession (28th percentile)
Terry Rozier -- 181 points on 0.78 points per possession (40th percentile)
Fred VanVleet -- 182 points on 0.83 points per possession (49th percentile)
De'Aaron Fox -- 192 points on 0.82 points per possession (48th percentile)
Outside of VanVleet, every player has point guard listed as their primary position. So any DvP or matchup-based tool is going to treat a matchup against the Jazz the exact same for Ben Simmons or Lonzo Ball as it is for Kyrie Irving or Trae Young. Clearly, Simmons does not benefit from a matchup against a poor pick-and-roll scheme as much as Irving.
Takeaways
Pick-and roll data is a free and easily accessible way to gain an edge over the field in NBA DFS, and it is especially important for tournament play.
The public is almost never going to be on point guards who are facing the Jazz, 76ers, Bucks, or Clippers, but you now know which players to target in those matchups and will be able to get them at subdued ownership in tournaments.
The numbers don't lie. I ran this exact same study for numberFire.com in 2016, and 19 of the 22 most effective guards exceeded expectations in positive pick-and-roll matchups. So far this season, 18 of 25 in that group have exceeded expectations. With the pick and roll only becoming more prevalent, this information will grow in importance in NBA DFS.
If you have any questions about pick-and-roll data or anything covered in this article, ask me on Twitter. My follow-up piece will examine the top scoring pick-and-roll big men and how they have fared against teams that struggle against opposing roll men.
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