Mets vs. Cardinals Thursday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Potential final career start for struggling Adam Wainwright

The Mets and Cardinals combined to win 194 regular-season games last season with both making the playoffs, but both were upset at home in the wild card series. I'm not saying some type of hangover is the reason why they are two of the most disappointing teams in the majors, but it might have played a role. The two teams open a series in St. Louis on Thursday, and it might be last-ever start on the mound for struggling Cardinals legend Adam Wainwright. The Mets are short favorites. 

Of course, fellow Cardinals legends and lock future Hall of Famers Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina retired after last season and Wainwright, who will be 42 later this month, thought about joining them. He instead decided to chase his 200th career win – which definitely would help his Hall of Fame case. Right now? He's probably in the Hall of Very Good.

I personally thought reaching 200 wins would be a lock considering Wainwright won 11 last year with a 3.71 ERA and only needed five more victories in 2023. Alas, he has been perhaps the worst starting pitcher in the majors at 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA, 2.09 WHIP and just 39 strikeouts in 15 starts. Wainwright doesn't have enough innings to be a qualified pitcher, but he'd be last in ERA and WHIP if so. He has been worth -2.3 WAR.

Last Friday in Kansas City against the terrible Royals, Wainwright was obliterated for a season-high eight runs in just one inning, the shortest start of his career. It was his sixth straight loss, a career high, and fifth straight start of three innings or fewer.

The Cardinals are in a bind here because they want to do right by Wainwright, but the situation is becoming untenable. There was talk of moving him to the bullpen – he certainly could get the two more wins he needs for 200 there – but he'll get another shot in the rotation in part because fellow starter Steven Matz landed on the IL on Monday. Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said Wainwright's role will be reevaluated after this start.

"We've talked to him," Mozeliak said. "It's tough because we all have great respect for Adam and what he's meant to the franchise, but we also have to give ourselves a chance to at least win every time we send someone out there. The last couple of starts have been troubling. They've been difficult. … He understands that he knows he's got to do better. He's appreciated that he's getting an opportunity but he understands that things could change."

Wainwright made his big-league debut in relief against the Mets on Sept. 11, 2005, so maybe it would be fitting for his last start to be against them. Wainwright's last win this year was at the Mets way back on June 17, when he allowed three runs over 6.1 innings.

DraftKings clearly has no idea what to do with him tonight as the only individual over/under currently posted for him is 2.5 strikeouts. The SportsLine Projection Model has Wainwright allowing 2.6 earned runs over 5.2 innings.

It's former Cardinals lefty Jose Quintana (0-4, 3.03 ERA) for the Mets. He has been quite good since he finally made his season debut on July 20 after recovering from an injury, but he's getting no run support. Quintana has not allowed a home run over his last 91.1 innings, the longest such active streak in MLB.  He's the first pitcher to even reach 90 since Tyson Ross did so in 2015.

That run may be ended by Paul Goldschmidt, as he is a 11-for-17 with three career homers off Quintana. Goldschmidt is +450 to go yard Thursday.

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