Kostos: Impact of Brady's suspension on Pats' chances

Commissioner Roger "Judge, Jury & Executioner" Goodell upheld the four-game Deflategate suspension for Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Whether you agree with Goodell’s decision (I don’t), the fact is the suspension, if upheld a final time in court, makes New England’s outlook a lot murkier than if No. 12 were under center the entire season.

In this column, we’ll analyze the Patriots’ Week 1 game against the Steelers, their chances to win the AFC East and their hopes for a second consecutive Super Bowl championship -- and do so in a fashion prettier than Gisele Bundchen.

Season Outlook

Remember 2008?

The Patriots were coming off a heart-wrenching loss in Super Bowl 42, and were widely expected to compete for another title. They lost Brady to a torn ACL in the first quarter of the first game, apparently dashing those postseason hopes.

But it was then the greatness of Bill Belichick really shone, as he navigated a Matt Cassel-led team to an 11-5 record -- arguably the most colossal accomplishment in his Hall-of-Fame career.

We’re not trying to minimize the loss of Brady for four games. The Sportsline Simulation Model chopped nearly a full game off New England’s win total (from 11.1 to 10.4) in the wake of Goodell’s ruling. Brady is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, so losing him is a big deal. But this is the Patriots we’re talking about, and no team handles adversity better. Plus, Brady would be on the field for any postseason games if (when) New England qualifies.

While the initial inclination might be to write off the Brady-less Patriots in favor of a chic “surprise” pick like the Dolphins or Bills, remember what Belichick pulled off back in 2008.

Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh (Sportsline Model Projection: 77% win WITH Brady, 59% win WITHOUT Brady)

The Patriots opened up at -6.5 against the Steelers in the standalone season opener. Once it appeared Brady would be suspended, the line moved to -1.5. It has since settled at -3.

I know, I know: The thought is to pick the Steelers. After all, the Patriots will be starting an unproven Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, and Pittsburgh’s offense -- led by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown -- should be electric. And I'm getting a field goal?

If you were to ask 10 random football fans to pick the winner, how many would tab the Steelers? At least eight, right?

Now ask yourself: Would you rather subscribe to the herd mentality or go the other way and pick the Patriots? Before you answer, keep this in mind: The casinos in Vegas didn’t build themselves.

Pittsburgh’s offense might dazzle, but the defense is riddled with more question marks than, well, the Riddler’s outfit. Garoppolo might not be Brady, but he’s competent enough to hand the ball off and throw it to Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman. He played well in his cameo last year. And in case you forgot, Steelers star running back Le’Veon Bell also will be suspended for the opening tilt.

The Patriots will beat the Steelers in Week 1 and cover. SportsLine backs me up, predicting a 25-21 Pats win.

Chances to win AFC East (SportsLine Model Projection: 70% WITH Brady, 59% WITHOUT Brady)

There’s been a lot of offseason hype swirling around AFC East teams not named the Patriots.

The Dolphins have a young, ascending quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, and a solid defense spearheaded by Ndamukong Suh. The Bills hired the brash Rex Ryan as coach, traded for LeSean McCoy and have the makings of a nasty defense. The Jets added talent on offense and boast an excellent defense.

The bottom line, though: None of these teams can hang with the Patriots.

While the Dolphins have an excellent roster, their coach is still the hapless Joe Philbin.

The Bills and Jets don’t have a quarterback.

The Patriots -- now listed at 5-to-9 by the Westgate LV SuperBook -- are the smart play. And the Sportsline Model Projection agrees, giving New England a 59 percent chance of taking the crown.

Super Bowl Odds

This is where things get tricky.

I have no problem picking a Patriots' Week 1 win over the Steelers, or putting them atop the AFC East for what seems like the 700^th straight year.

But win it all? That’s a tougher proposition.

The defense is not as good as it was last year. Darrelle Revis is gone. Brandon Browner is gone. Vince Wilfork is gone. Those aren’t defections that can be easily overcome.

Print the hats and T-shirts: The Patriots will go to the postseason. I feel uber-confident in that. Hell, they might even win the AFC.

But because of the defensive losses -- and due to the fact the Packers are the best team in football and would beat New England in the Super Bowl -- I can’t endorse New England (now 8-to-1) to lift the Lombardi Trophy.

A confident, sometimes brash New Yorker, Nick Kostos is a host and executive producer at SiriusXM and formerly covered the NFL for Bleacher Report. He enjoys nothing more than a cold beer and going against the public.