Justin Verlander trade to Astros odds fallout: Houston gets small futures boost, still behind Rays to win 2023 American League pennant

The Houston Astros wanted to re-sign Justin Verlander in free agency this past winter but were not open to reaching the big contract numbers the Mets offered the three-time Cy Young Award winner, so he signed with New York. Alas, the disappointing Mets continued their sell-off today by sending Verlander back to Houston for two prospects. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Astros did get a bit of a boost on their futures odds but still are +340 second favorites for the pennant behind Tampa Bay (+320).

Needless to say, if prime Verlander or even 2022 Verlander when he won his third Cy Young were in this trade, Houston would now be the clear-cut AL favorite, but the 40-year-old right-hander hasn't been that guy for some of this year at 6-5 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 81 Ks in 16 starts. In his past six starts, though, Verlander has 1.69 ERA and has batters to a .167 average and just one home run in 37⅓ innings. He earned his 250th career victory Sunday. That's the most of any active pitcher.

Verlander has been much worse outside of Citi Field (4.38 ERA) in 2023 and his strikeout rates and velocity are both well down from last year. He's also under contract through next season with a potential option for 2025 after agreeing to an $86.7 million, two-year contract with the Mets. That's why Houston didn't have to give up a Juan Soto-type amount via trade to get him back, although it certainly wasn't cheap as the Astros surrendered their No. 1 and No. 4 prospects (outfielders Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford).

Starting pitching was a clear need for Houston:

• Framber Valdez: 7.00 ERA in last 5 starts (pitches tonight vs. Guardians)
• Cristian Javier: 9.70 ERA in last 5 starts
• Rookie Hunter Brown: 5.75 ERA in last 7 starts
• Jose Urquidy: out since April (right shoulder)
• Luis Garcia: out for season (Tommy John)
• Lance McCullers: out for season (flexor tendon surgery)

It's the second time Verlander has been traded in his Hall of Fame career. He was shipped from Detroit to Houston at the 2017 deadline and led the Astros to their first World Series title that year and was also named ALCS MVP. Verlander was 5-1 with a 2.21 ERA in six playoff starts in 2017 for the Astros but 7-6 with a 4.71 ERA in 13 playoff starts since with them including last year's run to the title.

FanDuel dropped Houston's odds to win the World Series from +850 to +700, still behind the Braves (+300), Dodgers (+450) and Rays (+650), who landed their own good starting pitcher on Monday in Cleveland's Aaron Civale. The Astros are -130 favorites over the first-place Rangers (+115) in the AL West.

New York previously had traded fellow three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer (to Rangers), closer David Robertson (Marlins) and outfielder Mark Canha (Brewers). Outfielder Tommy Pham probably goes somewhere by today's Trade Deadline.   

What the Scherzer and Verlander trades might do is open up money for Mets owner Steve Cohen to spend this winter on Shohei Ohtani – not that Cohen has cared much about luxury tax penalties in the past. The Mets are paying a big chunk of Scherzer's salary and probably Verlander's as well as news trickles out about the trade details. 

Scherzer and Verlander are two of the 11 pitchers in MLB history with at least three Cy Young awards, and both were traded by the Mets to AL West teams in the span of three days. Who would have guessed that back in March? Not clear when Verlander will re-debut with Houston but his usual turn in the rotation would be Friday at Yankee Stadium. 

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