Joe Burrow NFL odds update: Bengals Under 11.5 regular-season wins now taking heavy action with Pro Bowl quarterback's uncertain return from calf injury

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow essentially didn't play in the 2022 preseason – he attempted one total pass – due to an appendectomy and because Coach Zac Taylor simply doesn't like to play his key guys much if at all in exhibition games. Burrow will miss the entire 2023 preseason as well dealing with a calf strain and it's not clear when he might return to the field. Bettors at PointsBet, though, have been hammering Under 11.5 regular-season wins for Cincinnati since Burrow was injured to the point Cincy has drawn the most Under money among all NFL win totals.

Burrow went down at camp last Friday and Taylor said his quarterback would be out "several weeks." He wouldn't answer when asked whether the recovery would bleed into the regular season.

"I know about calf strains all too well." Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard said recently. "They're really painful. They're not the end of the world, but they do linger a little bit. I think he and the training staff will do the right thing to take care of this in training camp and be ready to go."

If the Bengals took the field right now, journeyman Trevor Siemian likely would be the starter (13-17 in his NFL career) with Jake Browning his backup (he is getting some first-team reps) and recently signed Reid Sinnett as the third stringer. That's not good. There doesn't seem to be a huge worry that Burrow will sit Week 1 in Cleveland, but PointsBet did drop the Bengals from -2.5 to -1.5, and Burrow is just 1-4 in his career against the Browns.

At 11.5 wins, the Over had been +105 and the Under -130, but now Under is -155 (Over +125) with all that heavy Under action. Cincinnati's odds to win Super Bowl 58 haven't changed from +1000 but has shifted from +130 to +155 to win the AFC North.

"The 1-point move for the Week 1 spread indicates optimism that Burrow will be under center then," said PointsBet NFL Trader Jake Fisher. "The more noteworthy movement in futures markets can likely be attributed to the added risk that Burrow re-injures his calf during the season or is less mobile and explosive, which would make Cincy's offensive gameplan more conservative."

Last season the Bengals started 0-2 after Burrow was stricken with appendicitis on the first day of camp and missed 19 days. Yes, he was back for the regular-season opener but didn't look quite as sharp. In fact, the Bengals didn't score 30 points in a game until Week 6 and then they took off with Burrow returning to an MVP level. The former Heisman winner had overtaken Patrick Mahomes as the 2023 MVP favorite, but the two-time MVP Mahomes is back on top with Burrow sidelined. 

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