I don't mind a lower inventory of games this week, with six teams on the bye, and I actually look forward to the point when almost every team has played the same amount of games for research and analysis purposes.

There are plenty of games that I found myself liking more and more for various angles the deeper I dug in, and this should be a very telling weekend with regard to the ongoing status of several teams that came in with lofty – or quasi-lofty - expectations. The loser of the Rams-Buccaneers game is in big trouble, particularly if it's the Rams, since Tampa still gets the subsidy of playing in the lowly NFC South. If you pay attention to this space you know I've maintained that the Cardinals are frauds since before the season began, and a loss to Seattle on Sunday and a 3-6 record could effectively put a fork in them. And I was fading the Packers pretty heavily through the month of October. If they can't slough this off against the pathetic Lions, then just accept that they are afterthoughts too.

Here's what stands out on the board for me as we sit on Thursday:

• More Week 8 picks: Model | Pick 'em | Survivor | DFS

Bills -12.5 vs. Jets

I have feared all week that this would get to 14, and I like it anywhere below that number. That's not to say I don't believe that the Jets defense is a little over-valued given the inept offenses they have faced, and that's not to imply that I don't believe the Bills are at least 17 points better than the Jets, given the woes of New York's offense as well. But the backdoor cover is always a concern. I anticipate plenty of what will amount to garbage time here and it might take Buffalo until the second half to really flex its muscles. Zach Wilson is looking like Sam Darnold and Leslie Frazier will have him seeing all the ghosts. The Bills have fourth-best sack rate despite blitzing the least and Wilson has a 7.1 rating under pressure. The picks will keep coming. The absence of Breece Hall and lack of much of an offensive line is going to be a big problem for New York. Josh Allen owns the Meadowlands, whether he's facing the Jets or Giants. Both Bills wins came by 17 points or more a year ago and Wilson was 7-of-20 for 87 yards with eight sacks against them in Week 18, when the Bills had little to play for and with a Buffalo defense not nearly as robust as the 2022 edition. This is a mismatch. The Bills have 13 wins by 14 points or more since start of 2012; no one else has 10. As for the total (46.5), I lean Under, but get in fast because it opened a point higher. The Under is 11-4 for these two teams.

Jets Team Total Under 16.5 Points (-105)

The Jets struggle to move the ball at all and I'm not certain Wilson doesn't get booed off the field to give Mike White a shot. The Bills allow 14 points per game despite having played a very tough schedule. The Jets have performed much better on the road than at home and this is a perfect spot to fade Wilson.

Titans +12.5 vs. Chiefs

Mike Vrabel is the Rodney Dangerfield of NFL coaches. He and his team get no respect. They thrive off of it, and this is yet another example of it. Tennessee was the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year, and I like seeing Ryan Tannehill being involved limited at practice. My fear is this maybe goes down some as he continues to work back from that ankle injury. And I get that the Chiefs are coming off a bye, but the Titans faced the path of least resistance in the Texans last week, and my how they complied. I don't see Vrabel and a Titans defense that has been beyond stingy the last five weeks during its win streak getting rolled over by two touchdowns. The Titans have played Mahomes extremely tough (he is 1-2 against them, including a 27-3 defeat last year), and while the Chiefs ground game is stout this year, they have faced the second-least volume in the NFL in that regard. Derrick Henry and this rushing attack have rolled them (5.4 yards per carry, 111 rush yards per game and 6 rush TDs in five career games against them). The Texans can play at slow pace, work the clock, soften up that defense and keep it close enough. Vrabel is 14-4 against the spread as an underdog of four points or more (including playoffs). This opened at 11 and I fear, again, it heads back that way if/when Tannehill progresses.

Chargers at Falcons Over 49.5

These two teams play crazy games with ridiculous flow that usually ends up with a bunch of points scored in the fourth quarter for whatever reason. Neither plays a lick of defense and one – not the one you would think – leads the NFL in air yards per attempt, and the other, with like the fourth-best QB on the planet (no, not Marcus Mariota), refuses to push the ball downfield but can score points in bunches anyway. And coming off a bye, I am hoping that someone convinced Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi to take the harness off Justin Herbert. Neither team stop the run and both can run it plenty. The Chargers defense is 29th in yards per play, 32nd in yards per carry and 27th in points allowed per drive; the Falcons are 31st in YPP, 32nd in passing yards allowed per game and 31st in points per drive. Mariota isn't playing scared anymore and certainly won't have to be against this outfit. And Kyle Pitts even actually shows up as part of the offense now! The Over is 10-5 between these two, and it shouldn't stop now.

Packers Team Total Over 26.5 Points (-125)

How can you not fade the Lions defense? They pretty much hand 30 points  to whomever they play just for showing up (allowing 32 per game during their five-game rut). If ever the Packers offense was going to get going and create some mojo, it's now. Aaron Rodgers finally started pushing the ball downfield in the second half against Buffalo, and watching Tua Tagovailoa drop bombs all over Detroit last week will get him motivated. They should roll up 27 even if he just keeps throwing the ball to the running backs. Aaron Jones owns the Lions. And if they do get a few early scores as I suspect, and this unit gets rolling, they aren't going to stop after an inept October. No taking the foot off the pedal. The Packers have posted 30 or more in four straight against Detroit and they will rush for another 200 yards Sunday.

Dolphins at Bears Same Game Parlay (+490)

• Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards
• Mike Gesicki Over 26.5 Receiving Yards
• Justin Fields Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

The forecast in Chicago Sunday looks glorious. The Dolphins will feel at home in it. The Bears pass defense has been stout, but the defense lost its best player at the trade deadline in linebacker Roquan Smith and the Dolphins present unique match up issues. Tagovailoa, tops in the NFL in yards per attempt, is getting someone a reception over 40 yards in this game -- perhaps multiple someones. The Bears have been vulnerable to TEs (73.3 comp %, 24th in NFL), they struggled with one last week and Mike Gesicki has been heating up. He will enjoy Smith bring gone and go over 26.5 receiving yards. And Chicago's brutal OL and Miami's addition of Bradley Chubb leads me to a prop I have been leaning into lately with Chicago finally adapting its game plan to its QB -- Justin Fields going over 48.5 rushing yards.

Player Props of the Week

Aaron Jones 2+ TDs (+390)

It's not uncommon for Jones to drop a hat trick of TDs on the Lions and he will feature so much in this game plan and be a total mismatch for the Lions on the ground and in the pass game.

Greg Zuerlein Over 1.5 Field Goals (+129)

The Jets have to take points where they can get them, no matter how many points, in this game against the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL and with their offense on tilt.

Mac Jones Interception (-117)

Jones has been throwing jump balls all year and doesn't look very sure of himself, and the Colts play solid defense. Getting Shaq Leonard back last week already led to takeaways and the Patriots don't have guys who are going to just snatch 50-50 balls for the most part (or at least not unless Bailey Zappe is at QB). Jones has thrown seven picks already despite missing a bunch of time. Why stop now? Having Zappe looking over his shoulder won't help.

Geno Smith Under 250.5 Passing Yards (+100)

This is a tough match up for Smith. For all his greatness this season, he struggles vs. the blitz. He saw a ton of it zSunday and struggled (66.4 rating when blitzed) and only last week's opponent – the Giants – blitz more than the Cardinals. Smith had 197 passing yards in their first meeting this season. That factor, plus Seattle's ability to control the game on the ground, in what should be a close game, leads me here.

DeAndre Carter Anytime TD (+215)

The Chargers don't have any receivers left and the Falcons secondary is depleted. Quite interesting. Carter is the next man up and was seeing a decent amount of targets already. The Falcons have been better against TEs than WRs this season – their 12 receiving TDs to opposing WRs is second-most in the NFL – and Justin Herbert is good enough to make this work against an opponent this broken.

Looking for the best picks against the spread, sharp plays on the total, and props you can take straight to the pay window? Join Jonathan Coachman on the Early Edge as he speaks with SportsLine's top handicappers to preview the day's biggest games. We promise to keep it short, sweet and to put some green in your pocket. Early Edge is in your feed every single day by 11 a.m. ET. Subscribe right here on YouTube to watch daily, plus don't miss the Early Edge specials and live shows!