Final score projection for New England vs. Tennessee

For the first time since 2010, the New England Patriots will have to play in the the AFC Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs. A Week 17-loss to the Miami Dolphins leaves them as the No. 3 seed in the conference and they'll now have to take on the Tennessee Titans, who won the final wild-card spot with a dominant win over the Titans in the final week of the regular season.

New England will host Tennessee at Gillette Stadium on Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Patriots are favored by five currently after the opening line listed them as 5.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the over-under total is up to 44.5 from 43.5 at open.

The Patriots have been a defensively-oriented team in 2019, leading the NFL in points allowed per game (14.1) and yards allowed per game (275.9). New England forced a staggering 36 turnovers this season and finished with 47 sacks as a team despite the fact that Jamie Collins led the team with just 7.0 sacks. Bill Belichick's squad throws a lot of unique looks at their opponents and Titans starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill will certainly be tested by the pressure. Offensively, Sony Michel (912-7), James White (908 scrimmage yards) and Rex Burkhead (581 scrimmage yards) give the Patriots a versatile trio of backs and Tom Brady managed games effectively with 4,057 yards and 24 touchdowns against just eight interceptions.

However, the Patriots defense will also be tested by Tannehill and Titans superstar running back Derrick Henry. Tannehill led Tennessee to a 7-3 record in 10 games as a starter and threw for 2,598 yards and 22 touchdowns with just five interceptions after taking over for Marcus Mariota. Meanwhile, Henry led the NFL in rushing yards (1,540) and rushing touchdowns (16), closing the season strong with 796 yards and 10 touchdowns in the final six games he played. As good as the Patriots defense is, it has allowed 4.2 yards per carry (14th in the NFL) and Henry's punishing running style may wear on a team that lost three of its last five games down the stretch.

So who wins on Sunday in this crucial AFC Wild Card showdown? And can two stout defenses help keep the total under 44.5? The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated every NFL Wild Card game 10,000 times. Below is a simulation of Saturday's Patriots vs. Titans matchup, with projected final scores and statistics. Projections for all games are updated every 10 minutes.

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TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, 1:05 P.M. ET

SportsLine Projection Model's score: Patriots 22, Titans 16

Vegas line: The Patriots are five-point favorites, down from 5.5 at open (O/U 44.5, up from 43.5)

Projected Statistics: Tom Brady throws for 250 yards and 1.40 touchdowns with 0.73 interceptions and Julian Edelman catches 6.3 passes for 72 yards. Sony Michel rushes for 56 yards and Rex Burkhead has 50 yards from scrimmage. For Tennessee, Ryan Tannehill throws for 216 yards and 1.10 touchdowns with 1.00 interceptions while Derrick Henry rushes for 96 yards and 0.52 touchdowns.