The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies.
SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme. This analysis also highlighted what a great spot Elijah Moore was in against a man-heavy Miami unit -- Moore's 32.6 DraftKings points in that Week 11 matchup marked his season-high.
Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.
Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game in Week 2 and found six spots that stand out.
One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: D.J. Moore getting a breath of fresh air in Week 2. The Giants used man coverage on 32% of their defensive plays in Week 1, compared to just a 14% rate from the Cleveland defense that Moore faced. With all due respect to Adoree' Jackson, Gibbs believes Moore benefits from any increase in single-man coverage.
Gibbs also identified a schematic tendency in Detroit's defense that bodes quite well for one of Washington's receivers but could result in a disappointing Week 2 for the other Commander.
So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And which Commander wide receiver should thrive against Detroit's heavy Cover 1 usage? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!
Vance Joseph's Cardinals defense used man coverage at the NFL's third-highest rate (46%) in 2020. In 2021, that rate dropped to 29%. In Week 1, the Cardinals used man coverage 41% of the time.
It did not work.
Arizona also blitzed a lot. They were the only team in the NFL that blitzed on more than half of their plays.
That also did not work.
If Arizona takes a similar approach in Week 2, Derek Carr and Davante Adams could put up some silly numbers. Carr's passer rating is 10th-best (11.4% above the NFL average) when facing man coverage since the start of 2021. And only Justin Jefferson has been more efficient vs. man coverage than Davante Adams.
Carr's splits when blitzed also are encouraging for Adams and the offensive outlook for the Raiders as a whole in Week 2.
This game carries one of the highest over/unders of the week (51.5 points) for a reason. The Raiders are implied for 28.5 points, and if we see the same approach from Arizona as we did in Week 2, Davante could put up a Madden stat line.
No receiver had better usage in Week 1 than Davante Adams.
I actually have Davante Adams projected as the top scorer on the slate, and he's who I have ranked as WR1 for Week 2 with Justin Jefferson facing an Eagles defense that keeps everything in front of them and plays a ton of Cover 4.
Don't bench Justin Jefferson. I bring him up to highlight just how high the ceiling is for Adams in his Week 2 spot.
Detroit used man coverage all the time before 2021, and they got absolutely torched doing it -- good times for DFS players.
In 2021, they went to a far less aggressive scheme in what was likely an attempt to hide their young and struggling cornerbacks. In Week 1, we saw them revert to a man-heavy approach that blitzed at the second-highest rate (49%) of any team.
The Eagles responded to this with a quick-hitting offense focused on short passing. I expect that we'll see something similar from Carson Wentz in Week 2.
Samuel piled up 11 whole air yards on his 11 targets in Week 1. In spite of a line of scrimmage-oriented route tree, Samuel has been remarkably efficient when healthy recently. Check out his per-route splits compared to Terry McLaurin's since the start of 2020.
Curtis Samuel might just be really freaking good!
We got a bit sidetracked. Let's get back to our original point -- another heavy dose of Detroit man coverage in Week 2 will give Samuel a great opportunity to build on his impressive start. His efficiency has been boosted in a big way when facing man coverage.
Career man/zone splits for Curtis Samuel:
Man coverage -- 24.7% target per route run rate and a 1.70 yard per route run average
Zone coveage -- 17.5% target per route run rate and a 1.23 yard per route run average
Since the start of 2020, Samuel has a 27.4% target per route run rate to go with an eye-popping 2.13 yards per route run on 124 routes vs. man coverage.
Terry McLaurin (26% TPRR and 2.15 YPRR) also has been excellent against man coverage and brings a lot of upside in this matchup. The short-passing attack that we saw Philadelphia employ in Week 1 against Detroit's blitz-heavy defense just has me a bit worried that Wentz won't take the time to find McLaurin open downfield.
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Jarvis Landry balled out in his first game with the Saints. He led New Orleans in targets, which is a continuation of what we've seen from Landry at every point in his career. His target magnet ability has been one of the most consistent aspects of the NFL over the past decade.
Landry truly has been unique in his ability to consistently demand target volume. He faces more competition for targets than ever before in New Orleans, but at least in Week 1, Landry was the one who set the tone while the rest of the target distribution filled in around his share.
In Week 2, Landry faces a Buccaneers defense that uses Cover-2 and Cover-4 at a significantly higher rate than the league average and keeps everything in front of them. Tampa's average opponent depth of target since the start of 2021 is just 6.9 yards -- the third-lowest mark in the NFL.
In Week 1, the Bucs used zone coverage on 80% of their defensive plays. Since 2020, Davante Adams is the only player who has drawn targets at a higher per-route rate when facing zone coverage than Landry.
Landry was targeted more downfield in Week 1 than we have grown accustomed to, but I think that was mostly a small sample size thing. Only 10 of his 30 routes developed 10-plus yards downfield -- Landry just happened to turn those 10 routes into 3 catches on 4 targets for 85 receiving yards.
The average route depths for the Saints receivers certainly indicate that Landry is the one who will benefit the most from a matchup against Tampa's coverage tendencies.
Week 1 average route depth:
11 yards -- Michael Thomas
10.4 yards -- Chris Olave
7.4 yards -- Jarvis Landry
Tampa's keep-everything-in-front strategy could also mean more targets for Juwan Johnson (8.4-yard average route depth) -- Johnson was just one route run shy of Michael Thomas for the most of any Saints player in Week 1. Johnson was third on the team with a 16% target share in Week 1 and is just $2,500 on DraftKings.
In 2021, the Cowboys used man coverage at the third-highest rate (38.4%) in the NFL. They ranked second in pass defense DVOA and have a lot of talent in their secondary, but they looked tired and quite beatable in Week 1. That's not a good combination for keeping up with Ja'Marr Chase in single-man coverage.
Only Cooper Kupp (4.27 yards), A.J. Brown (3.62), and Justin Jefferson (3.33) have a higher yard per route run rate vs. man coverage than Chase (3.28) since he entered the league. Tee Higgins (2.45) ranks 11th among 77 qualified receivers. Both Bengals should ball if Cincinnati exercises even neutral aggressiveness in dropping back to pass -- no sure thing against a Cowboys squad that is only implied for 17 points.
The Niners sucked while playing under far from ideal circumstances in Week 1. Week 2's matchup gives San Francisco a great opportunity for a get-right game.
The 49ers carry a healthy 25.5-point implied team total into this game against a Seahawks pass defense that ranked 26th-best in 2021, according to Football Outsider's DVOA. In Week 1, Seattle ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA and employed a strategy that looked quite similar to what we saw not work in 2021. The Seahawks used man coverage just 5% of the time in Week 1. Their Cover-6 rate (36%) was higher than any team in the NFL -- the league average was 8.4%.
Cover-3, Cover-4, and Cover-6 made up 79.6% of Seattle's defensive schemes in Week 1. Samuel has run 279 routes against those coverage schemes since the start of 2021 and averaged an absurd 3.74 yards per route run -- the next-highest rate is 3.39!
Deebo Samuel's man/zone splits:
(Since the start of 2021)
Man coverage -- 21.8% target per route run rate (38th) and 1.93 yards per route run (28th)
Zone coverage -- 27.1% target per route run rate (6th) and 3.21 yards per route run (1st)
Seattle's zone-heavy scheme keeps everything in front of them and forces opponents into short passing. Seattle's opponent's average depth of target was just 6.85 yards in 2021 -- only the Eagles (6.35) and Tampa Bay (6.84) were lower. In Week 1, Russell Wilson posted an aDOT of just 6.55 yards, down from his league-high 9.9-yard mark in 2021. Wilson funneled 15 targets to his RB group.
In Week 1, we saw Deebo Samuel's average route depth from 7.2 yards in 2021 to 6.0, while his aDOT was down from 8.5 to 4.1 yards. 16.4% of his snaps came lined up in the backfield. He's clearly the guy to attack this Seattle defense with, right? In his one game against the Seahawks in 2021, Samuel piled up 156 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns on a season-high 13 targets.
Trey Lance's price is way down after a poor Week 1 showing, so he and Samuel can be stacked relatively inexpensively.
As we hit on in this space last week, Cleveland presented a suppressive schematic matchup for Baker Mayfield, and by association, D.J. Moore. The Week 2 matchup is much better.
The Giants used man coverage at the sixth-highest rate (31.7%) in Week 1. The Browns only had a 14% rate.
Baker Mayfield has been notably better against man coverage throughout his career, and he now is paired with one of the league's best 1-on-1 man coverage beaters. Baker looked awful matched up against one of the league's absolute best zone defenses, but the larger sample size suggests that Mayfield actually does present an upgrade for Moore in many areas -- including efficiency against man coverage.
Mayfield will still face zone coverage on roughly 70% of his dropbacks, and the Giants have a bottom-10 opponent passer rating when using zone coverage. This is not necessarily a good matchup for Mayfield, only a notable upgrade over the one that he faced in Week 1. And that may be all that Moore needs -- a neutral matchup. If Moore is as talented as we all believe that he is, all that he needs is a neutral matchup to smash value at his current price tag.
One last thing to note on New York's defense -- they blitzed 49% of the time in Week 1. Only two teams brought the blitz at a higher rate. Cleveland only blitzed Mayfield 15% of the time in his debut. This is about as different of a defense as you can draw on a week-to-week turn.
The good news -- D.J. Moore typically dominates the target share when his quarterback is blitzed. He's drawn a target on 28% of his routes when blitzed since the start of 2020.
The bad news -- Mayfield has been atrocious against the blitz. Among 23 qualified QBs, he ranks 18th in passer rating when blitzed since the start of 2021.
A sunk offensive environment could still prevent Moore from a bounce-back, but his ceiling is undeniably higher in this matchup than it was in Week 1. He's my favorite tournament play at the WR position on FanDuel this week, and only Tee Higgins rates out better than him on DraftKings.
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