*Neutral = when the score was within six points*
Season Long:
Bengals -- 66% (Meaning they passed the ball on 66 percent of offensive plays when the score of the game was within six points)
Steelers -- 64%
Bears -- 63%
Panthers -- 62%
Texans -- 62%
Buccaneers -- 62%
Falcons -- 62%
Seahawks -- 61%
Chiefs -- 61%
-------------------------------------
Rams -- 54%
Titans -- 54%
Cardinals -- 53%
Raiders -- 51%
Vikings -- 48%
Patriots -- 48%
Ravens -- 47%
Browns -- 46%
- Average drive distance standouts:
Average drive distance = the amount of yards gained per offensive drive
(Points per drive in parentheses to offer some insight as to which offenses underperformed relative to the amount of yardage they gained on each drive. There's more context -- the average starting field position per drive, for example -- that should be considered, but this is definitely a good starting point for highlighting some outliers.)
*Outliers in bold*
Season Long:
Chiefs -- 43 (3.06)
Titans -- 38.2 (2.72)
Panthers -- 38 (2.31)
Packers -- 37.6 (2.82)
Cardinals -- 37.4 (2.60)
Seahawks - 36.8 (2.85)
Raiders -- 36.1 (2.58)
Patriots -- 36.1 (1.99)
-------------------------------------
Giants -- 29.8 (1.72)
Washington -- 29.7 (1.89)
Eagles -- 29.7 (1.72)
Bengals -- 29.5 (1.80)
Bears -- 27.8 (1.57)
Broncos -- 27.7 (1.57)
Jets -- 26.3 (1.23)
This Week:
Browns -- 49.6 (3.00)
Chiefs -- 47.5 (2.45)
Jaguars -- 42.7 (2.78)
Panthers -- 41.2 (1.44)
Titans -- 40.8 (3.45)
Buccaneers -- 38.4 (2.18)
-------------------------------------
Giants -- 30.6 (1.58)
Washington -- 29.8 (3.09)
Falcons -- 28.1 (2.77)
Saints -- 22.8 (2.58)
49ers -- 22.7 (1.07)
Jets -- 21.8 (0.27)
Rams -- 20.9 (0.87)
Raiders -- 16.9 (0.46)
Bengals -- 14.5 (0.91)
Broncos -- 8.4 (0.25)
- Red zone efficiency standouts:
Red zone efficiency = Red zone touchdowns/red zone drives
Season Long:
(This is an easy way of illustrating which teams are over or underperforming when it comes to scoring touchdowns.)
For reference: The league average rate in 2019 was 55.3 percent. The league-high rate was 71.4 percent, and the league-low was 31.3 percent. Four teams were above 70 percent and four were below 40 percent.
77.8% -- Seahawks (Meaning they scored a touchdown on 81 percent of their drives that reached the red zone)
77.8% -- Vikings
73.7% -- Packers
73.7% -- Cardinals
72.7% -- Titans
72.1% -- Buccaneers
-------------------------------------
52.5% -- Falcons
50% -- Cowboys
48.3% -- Broncos
48.1% -- Bears
46.7% -- Giants
33.3% -- Jets
I'll be updating this on a game-by-game basis throughout the night on Sunday and into the morning on Monday.
Arizona Cardinals
In the three games since Kenyan Drake has returned:
Snap rate -- Drake (52.4%), Edmonds (49.1%)
Carries -- Drake (49), Edmonds (16)
Routes run -- Edmonds (64), Drake (39)
Targets -- Edmonds (12), Drake (8)
On the surface level, Drake has the more valuable role, but it's not a significant difference. The red zone splits make it clear that Drake carries far more upside with both players healthy, though.
Red zone snap rate -- Drake (66.7%), Edmonds (36.1%)
Red zone carries -- Drake (16), Edmonds (1)
Carries inside the 10 -- Drake (11), Edmonds (0)
Drake was on the field for seven of 11 plays from inside the 10-yard line in Week 12, and he finished with 93 scrimmage yards and two scores on 25 touches. The remaining schedule isn't particularly inviting, but still, Drake is a top-15-ish Fantasy RB on paper with this type of usage.
With Larry Fitzgerald out, the Cardinals used far more two tight end sets than usual. I hoped that we might see Andy Isabella's snap rate spike, but he ended up playing just 56.2 percent of the snaps and running a route on 29 of 39 dropbacks.
Christian Kirk had a season-high 91 percent snap rate in Week 11, and he backed that up with a n 88 percent rate in Week 12. He drew six targets and ran a route on all but one dropback, but there just wasn't much production to go around on one of Kyler Murray's worst passing days of the season.
Atlanta Falcons
This was a weird game in which the Raiders never really posed any sort of threat, but the Falcons were without their usual positive game script grinder in Todd Gurley. They still fed nearly 30 carries to their RB trio (Tony Brook-James mixed in a bit), but it was Ito Smith and not Brian Hill that emerged with a Fantasy relevant day. If Gurley remains out, the usage suggests that none of these backs are worth trusting as anything more than a desperation RB3 type of play.
Russell Gage actually led the team in snap rate (94.4 percent) and ran a route on every Matt Ryan dropback, but it resulted in just three catches for 34 yards on five targets. Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst led the way with eight targets apiece, but neither topped 50 yards. It's also noteworthy that Hurst played just 47.4 percent of the snaps. He was a bit banged-up heading into the game, so it's possible that the Falcons just took it easy with him while playing with a large lead. Keep an eye on the injury report this week.
Baltimore Ravens
Playing on Tuesday
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have been among the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL, but Josh Allen dropped back to pass on just 27 of 58 plays in this game. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is one of the most adaptable game planners on a week-to-week basis, and his backs found a lot of success on the ground in this spot. Devin Singletary ran for 82 yards on 11 carries, while Zack Moss went for 59 on nine attempts. While the production favored Singletary, the underlying numbers again pointed towards Zack Moss being the back you want for Fantasy.
Snap rate -- Moss (60%), Singletary (40%)
Routes run -- Moss (19), Singletary (10)
Red zone snap rate -- Moss (100%)
The red zone role belongs to Moss, and we've seen him taking more and more of the obvious passing downs away from Singletary as the season has progressed.
Dawson Knox's snap rate rose from 37 percent in his first game back from injury to 70 percent before the team's Week 11 Bye, and I hoped we might see his role continue to be expanded out of the Bye. His snap rate was down to 61 percent in this one. It's possible that he would have played more in a game script that didn't call for so much rushing, but Knox is pretty much off the Fantasy radar after this performance.
Gabriel Davis played 97 percent of the snaps and ran a route on every dropback. He was only targeted three times, but he turned that into a 3-79-1 line. Davis seems to always play well when given the opportunity, but Buffalo's upcoming schedule is not Fantasy friendly. He's only someone I'd be adding in deep leagues.
Somehow it only resulted in 39 yards, but Stefon Diggs saw 11 targets today. Fantasy owners of course want more production than that, but a 42 percent target share is super encouraging. Diggs' usage has gone up each time John Brown has been out of the lineup, and he's someone you should get back on track in Week 13 against the Niners.
Carolina Panthers
Mike Davis' snap rate was down to 57 percent in this game. Rodney Smith and Trenton Cannon combined to play just 19 percent of the snaps in Week 11, but they were on the field for 39 percent of Carolina's plays in Week 12. What has made Davis so valuable for Fantasy was his dominant share of the backfield work, and he's tough to trust as a top-15 RB going forward if that role is gone.
This was an absolutely brutal game for D.J. Moore owners. Moore had quietly been getting his season back on track prior to Week 12. He actually was up to fourth in the NFL in receiving yards prior to Thanksgiving's games, and he had been taking more and more of the targets and air yards leading into this game. He again led the Panthers in targets and air yards, but Teddy Bridgewater just missed him on a couple potentially big plays. And then to cap it off, Moore left late in the fourth quarter with a non-contact leg injury. Hopefully it isn't a major issue, but there's a real chance he's out for the rest of the Fantasy season this late into the year. It's worth noting that Carolina's Bye comes in Week 13, so if it isn't a major injury, we may not get enough info to have a good idea of Moore's health for at least a week.
I'm not sure if it matters, because the production continues to be there, but Curtis Samuel's snap rate has slowly dropped each consecutive weeks for the past four games. He played just 64.6 percent of the snaps in this one, but Samuel still ended with five catches for 77 yards. If Moore is forced to miss time, Samuel has low-end WR2 appeal, but the schedule coming out of the Bye isn't exciting.
Chicago Bears
Updating
Cincinnati Bengals
The only team that ran fewer plays than the Bengals (48) was the QB-less Denver Broncos (46). I thought there was a chance we'd see Cincy phone it in with Joe Burrow out and just go with a more run-heavy approach to make losses not look as bad. Instead, they let Brandon Allen sling it (he only averaged 6.97 air yards per attempt, so he wasn't actually slingin' it). The Bengals dropped back to pass on 72 percent of offensive plays, which resulted in a whopping 136 passing yards.
Tyler Boyd led the team in targets (six), but that resulted in just three catches for 15 yards. The only pass-catcher with any semblance of Fantasy relevancy was Tee Higgins, who caught five passes for 44 yards and a score.
I thought we might see Samaje Perine worked in more with Giovani Bernard banged-up heading into Week 12, but Gio held onto his workhorse role. He played 76 percent of the snaps, and all but one of the RB carries went Bernard's way.
Cleveland Browns
Jarvis Landry did not look hobbled in this one. It has been a long year for Cleveland's veteran slot receiver, but he showed more juice in Week 12 than we've seen from him in quite some time. Despite Cleveland dropping back on just 32 of 64 plays, Landry caught eight of 11 targets for 143 yards and a score. I expected him to take on more of a dominant role with OBJ sidelined, but that hadn't been the case until now. And still, Landry's 61.2 percent snap rate worries me a bit that we'll see anything close to this at any point going forward. He hasn't played more than 62 percent of the snaps in any of Cleveland's three games since the Bye week, and Landry is difficult to trust as part of one of the league's lowest volume passing attacks.
Khadarel Hodge led all Cleveland receivers with a 72 percent snap rate in Week 11, but his 41.8 percent rate this week was behind both Landry (61 percent) and Rashard Higgins (62.7 percent). He only ran 11 routes, while Landry and Higgins each ran 22. Austin Hooper ran 18 routes and scored a touchdown, but he was targeted just twice. With Landry dominating Baker Mayfield's attention, no other pass-catcher topped three targets or 32 receiving yards.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys fell behind early and ended up dropping back to pass on 70 percent of offensive plays on Thanksgiving. Andy Dalton was able to put up just 215 yards and one score against Washington's top-ranked pass defense, but that was plenty for Amari Cooper to explode back into Fantasy relevance. Cooper led the team with nine targets, which he turned into six catches for 112 and a score.
CeeDee Lamb's snap rate was below 60 percent in each of the three games leading into Dallas' Bye, but it has risen to 67 percent and 70 percent over the past two weeks. He ran more routes than Michael Gallup for the first time all season, but the result was just five catches for 21 yards.
Ezekiel Elliott played 65 percent of the snaps and turned 10 carries into 32 rushing yards. Next up is the Baltimore Ravens. Zeke is tough to consider a top-20 rest of season Fantasy RB, even with the relative depth at the RB position sitting pretty thin at the moment.
Denver Broncos
Phillip Lindsay left with a knee injury, and Melvin Gordon ended up playing 81 percent of the snaps. Outside of that, there's nothing to take away from Denver in a game where they started a practice squad wide receiver at QB and only dropped back to pass 11 times. Enjoy the Kendall Hinton reel:
Detroit Lions
After playing 70 percent of the snaps in Week 11, Kerryon Johnson was on the field for just 47 percent of the plays for Detroit on Thanksgiving. He also lost a fumble, but Johnson's four catches for 52 yards salvaged his Fantasy day. He ended with 98 scrimmage yards on 15 touches, compared to 55 yards on an identical amount of touches for Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately, it was Peterson who scored twice and was on the field for all but one of Detroit's plays from inside the 10-yard line. Hopefully D'Andre Swift comes back and assumes the every-down role we saw from him prior to his concussion, because this backfield is tough to know what to expect from as is.
Mohamed Sanu played a much larger role than we'd seen from him in previous weeks, finishing third among Detroit receivers in routes run and second in targets. As a result, Marvin Jones (83 percent) was the only receiver with a snap rate above 60 percent. Jones saw a massive 30 percent target share, but that resulted in just six catches for 48 yards. Hopefully Kenny Golladay is back in Week 13.
It's also worth noting that Detroit fired their head coach and GM after this game, so there's really no telling what type of changes we'll see going forward. Intuitively, it would make sense for them to prioritize the young players in a lost season, so I'd hope for a Fantasy friendly role for Swift and T.J. Hockenson down the stretch.
Green Bay Packers
Updating
Houston Texans
Houston had just 50 total plays of offense on Thursday, which is currently the third-lowest mark of any team in Week 12. They scored quickly, which resulted in just 30 dropbacks from Deshaun Watson. That was enough for Will Fuller to catch six of 10 targets for 171 yards and two scores, as 39 percent of Watson's targets were directed towards his top wideout.
Unfortunately for Watson, Fuller, and Brandin Cooks (who caught all five of his targets for 85 yards), the next three games come against the Colts, Bears, and Colts again.
Duke Johnson still played 75 percent of the snaps, but his role was somewhat diminished in Week 12. After handling almost all of the RB carries in previous weeks, Johnson only out-carried C.J. Prosise 9-5 in this game.
Duke also appeared to have lost his goal line role, but he salvaged his Fantasy day with an awesome 33-yard touchdown reception. Even if David Johnson remains sidelined, I'm not sure I'd want to trust Duke as anything other than an emergency starter against the Colts. If he doesn't have the goal line role, there's just not much upside available for Johnson.
Indianapolis Colts
With Jonathan Taylor sidelined and an early deficit in this game, the Colts ended up dropping back to pass on 64 percent of offensive plays, and Nyheim Hines finished with a season-high 65 percent snap rate. Hines out-carried Jordan Wilkins 10-to-6 and led the team with 11 targets. He totaled 95 scrimmage yards on 18 touches, while Wilkins went for 57 yards on nine touches. Hines was also on the field for 78 percent of offensive plays in the red zone and four of six plays from inside the 10, but it was instead Jacoby Brissett who scored Indy's two rushing touchdowns.
For the second-straight week, Trey Burton's snap rate was below 30 percent. Mo Alie-Cox again played more snaps (44 percent) and ran more routes (26 for Big MAC and 23 for Burton), but Burton was the tight end who was more productive in Fantasy. Burton finished third on the team with six targets, which he turned into a 3-42-1 line. That type of production is going to be tough to replicate with the type of snap share he's seeing, but the upcoming schedule is juicy.
On the opposite end of the prodution-volume spectrum, we find Michael Pittman. The rookie receiver played every single snap and finished with nine targets, but he caught just two of them for 28 yards. He was credited with three drops, but none of them were on target throws. The upcoming schedule and the volume Pittman saw in this game suggest that better performances should be coming, but it's possible that the rookie could continue to struggle with efficiency on those targets.
T.Y. Hilton's 89 percent snap rate was his highest mark since Week 6, and he turned his seven targets into a 4-81-1 line. It was encouraging to see Hilton able to capitalize on the advantageous matchup, but two of his next three games will come against Bradley Roby, who has done a solid job of limiting receivers all season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Even with Devine Ozigbo back to full health, James Robinson played 97 percent of the snaps and handled all 22 of the backfield touches. The game was surprisingly competitive for one that was quarterbacked by Mike Glennon, which allowed Robinson to completely dominate the usage for the Jags. He turned 27 touches into 159 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. The remaining schedule isn't particularly exciting, and the Jags could be blown out in any of their upcoming games. Still, it's tough to name more than five or six backs I'd rather have than Robinson with the type of usage he's seeing.
With D.J. Chark and Chris Conley both out, the playing time was concentrated on three receivers: Keelan Cole (94 percent snap rate), Laviska Shenault (91 percent), and Collin Johnson (81 percent). Johnson caught a 46-yard touchdown and finished with by far the most productive line (4-96-1) of any Jags wideout. He also led the way with eight targets, while both Keelan Cole and Robinson saw six. Shenault saw four targets and one end around rush, but he totaled just 37 scrimmage yards.
Kansas City Chiefs
I was right in ranking Tyreek Hill as the WR1 for Week 12, but I actually sold him a bit short on Twitter. The Tweet should have read, "Tyreek Hill going for about 8-200-3 in the first half," because Hill ended up far surpassing (13-269-3) the numbers I projected for him.
I highlighted the change in how Kansas City was using Hill on Fantasy Football Today's 'FFT in 5' podcast, which airs a five minute advanced stat episode with Adam Aizer and myself each Saturday. This is my first time ever "plugging" anything in this article -- I'd appreciate it if you'd give that Saturday episode a listen and/or download each week. I put a lot of time into finding stats that I think will be important and helpful, and I think you'll find the five minutes worth your time.
As mentioned on FFT in 5, Hill had seen 32 targets in Kansas City's two most recent games and had a 30 percent target share across the past four games. He was the WR1 in Fantasy in 2018 with just a 23.7 percent target share. He has target totals of 15, 14, and 18 in his three most recent games. Prior to that, Hill had just three career games with 14 or more targets. What happens if you give the most efficient per target Fantasy producer of all time a Michael Thomas-like target share? Well, we're seeing it right now. He's the unquestioned WR1 and worth $10k in DFS going forward until his target numbers fall off.
Sammy Watkins played 72 percent of the snaps in his first game back. Demarcus Robinson actually played two more snaps and ran three more routes than Watkins, while Mecole Hardman saw just a 30.4 percent snap rate.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's snap rate rose from 51 percent to 59.5 percent, which marked the highest rate of his time sharing the field with Le'Veon Bell (30.4 percent snap rate). Fantasy owners shouldn't have been expecting much in the yardage department against Tampa Bay's run defense, but still, 11 carries for 37 yards is a letdown. There were some positives in his underlying numbers -- CEH was on the field for all of Kansas City's plays from inside the 10-yard line, and he played 50 percent of the two-minute offensive plays after seeing zero percent in each of the past two games with Kansas City inexplicably getting Darrel Williams more involved -- but at the end of the day, this was another in a long list of disappointing Fantasy performances for Fantasy's top-drafted rookie. The Chiefs are getting anything they want through the air, and they've somewhat abandoned the run as a result. 73.6 percent of the offensive plays in this game were dropbacks, which has become a theme for Kansas City as the season has progressed.
Weeks 1-6:
65.4% neutral situation dropback rate
55% first down dropback rate
56.9% dropback rate when leading
Weeks 7-12:
70.8% neutral situation dropback rate (+5.4)
61.8% first down dropback rate (+6.8)
64.5% dropback rate when leading (+7.6)
Las Vegas Raiders
There's not much to take away from this game for Las Vegas. They came out flat, Derek Carr looked like the version we've seen prior to 2020, and the starters were pulled in the fourth quarter. It would be noteworthy that Josh Jacobs played 60 percent of the snaps in a blowout loss, but passing downs back Jalen Richard was inactive with an illness.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler was in no way limited in his first game back. He played 72 percent of the snaps, ran a route on 38 of 55 dropbacks, saw an absurd 16 targets on those 38 routes, and ended up with 129 scrimmage yards on 25 touches. Joshua Kelley was the back who found the end zone, but Ekeler out-snapped him 8-5 from inside the 10-yard line. Kelley played just 23 percent of the snaps and isn't worth owning outside of deep leagues.
Keenan Allen again saw double digit targets, but he surprisingly finished with just a 4-40-1 line in what was a beautiful matchup on paper. Efficiency really was just an issue for the Chargers altogether. They ranked second in total offensive plays, and Justin Herbert finished first among QBs in dropbacks, but the result was just 17 points.
Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers still finished third among the RBs in snap rate (27.4 percent), but he was the only back to find the end zone, and he had more than double the scrimmage yards (84 on nine touches) of Malcolm Brown (19 on five touches) and Darrell Henderson (19 on 10 touches). He's still barely ownable in any leagues without deep benches, but it was at least nice to see some signs of life from the rookie.
Tyler Higbee was able to suit up and play 61 percent of the snaps, but that resulted in just two targets on 18 routes run. He's not a top-20 Fantasy TE. Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds both ran more routes and saw more targets than Cooper Kupp, who finished with just a 2-41 line on five targets.
Miami Dolphins
Ryan Fitzpatrick finished sixth among quarterbacks with 43 dropbacks, which surprisingly only resulted in 257 passing yards against a porous Jets secondary.
This game was reminiscent of late 2019, as Fitzpatrick had eyes only for DeVante Parker with Preston Williams sidelined. Parker's 14 targets made him the only Dolphin with more than five, and he was responsible for 119 of Fitzptarick's 257 yards. The only other player to top 20 receiving yards was Mike Gesicki, who finished with a 2-35-1 line on five targets. Gesicki's 70.4 percent snap rate matched his second-highest mark of the season, and it's possible that he could enjoy a late-season Fantasy resurgence with a favorable schedule upcoming.
I'm not sure if it was a result of a hamstring issue or something else, but Jakeem Grant playerd just 33.8 percent of the snaps in this game. Keep an eye out for news, but he's probably safe to drop if you were holding him in deeper leagues. There is some Fantasy upside within reach for Grant with the upcoming schedule, but it's do or die time with the Fantasy playoffs right around the corner.
With both Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed sidelined, it was practice squad call-up DeAndre Washington who led the way with a 48 percent snap rate. The Dolphins really do not want to play Matt Breida. I don't really understand why Breida has been unable to find the field even with the litany of injuries at the RB position, but he saw just a 32.4 percent snap rate in Week 12. Rookie RB/WR hybrid Lynn Bowden also saw a career-high 31 percent snap rate, but just one of those snaps came in the backfield. The backfield was held scoreless, but there was decent volume otherwise. Washington turned 15 touches into 60 scrimmage yards, while Breida went for 53 yards on 10 touches.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have the NFL's most concentrated offense, as it flows entirely through three players. With one of the three (Adam Thielen) out for Week 12, I expected massive games from both Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson, but it was only Jefferson who saw the boost. Cook temporarily left the game with an injury, and his usual snap rate of roughly 80 percent was down to 61.5 percent as a result. Still, it was disappointing to see him gather just 61 rushing yards on 18 carries against Carolina's weak rush defense.
Jefferson led the team with 13 targets, and no other Viking reached double digits. 70 yards is far less than I would have expected if you told me Jefferson would see 13 targets against this defense, but two of Kirk Cousins' three passing touchdowns were brought in by the rookie. Kyle Rudolph was next on the team with eight targets, and he played 77.8 percent of the snaps with Irv Smith Jr. sidelined. Both Chad Beebe (7-63-1) and Olabisi Johnson (7-74) saw seven targets, but it was Johnson who was on the field far more often.
New England Patriots
The Patriots have truly committed to the run, even when not playing with a lead. Cam Newton only dropped back to pass on 20 of 51 offensive plays in a game that was tightly contested throughout. He went 9-18 for 84 yards, zero scores, and two picks. With that type of a day from Cam, Jakobi Meyers (5-52 on seven targets) and Damiere Byrd (3-33 on eight) never really stood a chance of being productive, even while dominating the target share. N'Keal Harry played just 49 percent of the snaps and went catchless on two targets.
Sony Michel was back for the Patriots, but he played just one snap. Meanwhile, Damien Harris played a season-high 64 percent of the snaps. He rushed 14 times for 47 yards, and while he out-snapped James White 6-to-4 from inside the 10-yard line, it was White who finished with two goal line rushing touchdowns. White played just 37.7 percent of the snaps and had 17 scrimmage yards on six touches, and the two touchdowns in this spot don't change the fact that he's tough to trust even with Rex Burkhead out. Six touches and a 38 percent snap rate isn't going to get it done most weeks.
New Orleans Saints
If you thought Cam's passing numbers were bad, well, Taysom Hill's were almost identical. He dropped back to pass on just 21 of 63 offensive plays and went 9-16 for 78 yards, zero passing touchdowns, and one interception. Hill rushed ten times for 44 yards and two touchdowns, so Fantasy managers don't care, but he's making it tough to trust any other pieces of this offense on a weekly basis. Today's workload was also impacted by the fact that the Saints were playing a quarterback-less Broncos squad that put up no threat whatsoever, but still, Hill's insertion has been a massive dent in an otherwise excellent Fantasy season from Alvin Kamara.
It's almost hard to believe, but Kamara has one catch for -2 yards on two targets in the two games Hill has started. Michael Thomas appeared to be safe after Hill funneled targets his way in Week 11, but New Orleans' top receiver put up just a 4-50 line in Week 12. Thomas was the only New Orleans player with more than two targets, and he should fare better in a more neutral game script.
Again, this is definitely impacted by the game scripts in the past two games, but the RB workload split is pretty eye-opening. And with Hill set to start against a potentially Julio Jones-less Falcons team in Week 13, we could see a similar game script play out.
Over the past two weeks:
Snap rate -- Latavius Murray (48.5%), Alvin Kamara (48.5%)
Touches-yards -- Murray (34-211), Kamara (25-97), Taysom Hill (20-93)
Inside the 10 carries -- Hill (5), Murray (4), Kamara (2)
Kamara has out-snapped Murray 12-to-4 from inside the 10-yard line, but Murray received a carry on all four of his snaps while nine of Kamara's snaps from that range were passing plays. I'd expect Kamara to get back to his dominant Fantasy production when Drew Brees returns, but there's a chance that Taysom Hill sinks Kamara owners' Fantasy teams playoff hopes before Brees rights the ship.
New York Giants
Daniel Jones played just 63 percent of the snaps before leaving with injury, and things got even uglier for New York's offense after that. The Giants actually ran more offensive plays (80) than any team in the NFL, because the Bengals couldn't get anything going offensively. New York only scored one offensive touchdown, but the huge play volume led to some decent Fantasy results. Evan Engram tied Golden Tate for the team lead with nine targets, and he turned those into 129 receiving yards. Tate's 56.8 percent snap rate was the highest its been since Week 6, and he actually ran two more routes than Darius Slayton, who was held catchless on two targets.
Sterling Shepard was the only receiver to play more than 70 percent of the snaps, and he turned eight targets into a 7-64 line even with subpar QB play.
Wayne Gallman took advantage of the soft matchup against Cincinnati, rushing for 94 yards and a score on 24 carries. He also was targeted five times, which turned into -3 receiving yards. The 27 touches and 63 percent snap rate were both season-highs, and Gallman has been trending upward for over a month now. That momentum may be tough to carry over into the upcoming matchups, though, as the Giants face the Seahawks, Cardinals, Browns, and Ravens to close out the Fantasy season. New York could realistically lose all of those games by a wide margin, and Gallman's Fantasy production is somewhat game script dependent. Don't be surprised if the floor falls out next week.
New York Jets
That's back to back duds from Jamison Crowder, who also isn't seeing anywhere near the volume that he attained early in the season. Even with Sam Darnold back under center, Crowder was targeted just five times in this game. Instead, it was Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims dominating the targets. Each saw a 31 percent target share and finished with a solid (79 for Perriman and 67 for Mims) yardage total. Those two ran 33 routes each, while Crowder ran 31, and no other New York player ran more than 15.
Frank Gore played 58 percent of the snaps and turned 21 touches into 86 yards. Good luck to you if that matters in any way for your Fantasy team.
Philadelphia Eagles
Playing on MNF
Pittsburgh Steelers
Playing on Tuesday
San Francisco 49ers
It was cool to see Raheem Mostert find the edge for a first quarter touchdown in his first game back in what has been an injury-marred season for him, and it was surprising to see San Francisco immediately entrust him with 18 touches. Mostert's 40.3 percent snap rate left something to be desired, but he's shown an ability to push for more than that in the short glimpses we've had of him healthy at various points this season. I'd expect his snap rate to rise to 50-60 percent in the upcoming weeks, which is plenty in San Fran's run-heavy offense. I'd rank Mostert as a top-20 Fantasy RB going forward with matchups against the Bills and Cowboys still in store.
Jeff Wilson also returned for San Fran, and he played 34.7 percent of the snaps and handled 12 touches. Meanwhile, Jerick McKinnon's tired legs got some much needed rest. He played just 25 percent of the snaps and touched the ball five times. He's not Fantasy relevant as a change of pace option with the other backfield pieces getting healthier.
We got a classic Deebo Samuel game, as he compiled 133 receiving yards on just eight air yards. A good portion of Samuel's 13 "targets" were screens or touch passes, and he had more yards after catch (137) than receiving yards. Fantasy managers won't complain, though, because ordinarily a matchup against the Rams is a death sentence for wideouts.
Without Brandon Aiyuk, it was Richie James (88 percent snap rate) and not Kendrick Bourne (57 percent) who saw the big boost. Neither receiver had more than 35 receiving yards. Jordan Reed ran a route on 25 of 33 dropbacks and finished second on the team with six targets, but it resulted in just two catches for 18 yards.
Seattle Seahawks
Playing on MNF
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Tampa falling in a large hole early, passing down specialist Leonard Fournette played 56 percent of the snaps to Ronald Jones' 36 percent rate. It didn't matter for Fantasy, though, as one of Jones' eight routes run resulted in a 37-yard touchdown reception. Jones is clearly the more explosive back, and he out-gained Fournette 103-20 even though he only had four more touches (10) than Fournette. After their Week 13 Bye, the Bucs get the Vikings, Falcons, and Lions for the Fantasy playoffs. Tampa hasn't played well enough to assume that they'll beat anyone, but those games do set up as spots the Bucs will likely be favored in. RoJo owners could be rewarded big time for their faith in what has been a tumultuous season for the young RB.
Antonio Brown's snap rate was up to 73 percent in a negative game script, but that resulted in just two catches for 11 yards on four targets. This wasn't a favorable matchup, and the underlying numbers leading into this game suggest that Brown could be a sneaky source of Fantasy value in these favorable matchups down the stretch run.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans led the Bucs with nine target apiece, but it was Rob Gronkowski who led the team in receiving (6-106). Godwin caught eight of his targets for 97 yards, while Evans chipped in a very Mike Evans-y line of 3-50-2.
Tennessee Titans
Winter is here, apparently. Derrick Henry put up a vintage 2019 Henry line in Week 12, rushing 27 times for 185 yards and three scores against a Colts run defense that held him out of the end zone two weeks ago and has been among the league's best at limiting opposing RB's for years now. The Titans get the Jaguars, Lions, and Packers for the Fantasy playoff schedule. There's no RB I'd rather have rest of season than Henry at this point.
Also in typical 2019 Titans fashion, A.J. Brown turned just 23 routes run into four catches for 98 yards and a score. This dude is just insanely efficient, and he's someone you have to keep locked into your lineup, because he can break off a big play against any defense. The only thing likely to limit Brown's Fantasy appeal is the inability of Jacksonville and Detroit to keep the game competitive in Weeks 14 and 15.
Jonnu Smith ran a route on 16 of Ryan Tannehill's 23 dropbacks and wasn't targeted on the day. A floor of zero points exists on a weekly basis as the third pass-catching weapon in a low volume attack. It will be enticing to gamble on the big play upside Jonnu brings against the upcoming schedule of defenses, but understand that you run a risk of getting a donut on any given week.
Washington Football Team
Washington led throughout in this one, and Antonio Gibson played a career-high 65.2 percent of the snaps as a result. His 136 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns on 25 touches brought Gibson up to the RB5 rank in Fantasy on the season, but things won't be so easy against Pittsburgh and San Francisco in the next two weeks.
Peyton Barber ended up with 11 rushing attempts, but that was just a result of the lopsided nature of the game. Gibson was responsible for 11 of 15 first half RB carries, and he played 72 percent of the snaps in the first half. J.D. McKissic still played the majority of third downs, though, and I'd expect him to cut fairly deeply into Gibson's playing time if Washington is forced into a pass-heavy gameplan in any of their upcoming games.
Terry McLaurin is just awesome. Even in his "down" games, McLaurin still manages to catch seven passes for 92 yards. He has at least 84 yards in each of his past five games. McLaurin is up to 963 receiving yards on the season and is just 58 yards out from the league lead. That's so insane when you consider the QB carousel he's had to deal with.
