Fantasy Football 2022: How targets per route run can help identify potential breakouts in the passing game
Targets per route run correlated more highly with Fantasy scoring in 2020 than all other opportunity-based metrics.
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The Fantasy football research process has become more efficient over time as the collective space has worked together to weed out the noisy stats and let the cream rise to the top. Generally speaking, today's most commonly referenced stats also are some of the most highly correlated to Fantasy production. If you're interested in advanced stats, I've put together an Advanced Stats Guide for Fantasy Football to help familiarize readers with the stats he references the most frequently.
I believe there are still improvements that can be made to the Fantasy research process. One key insight I've uncovered is an overlooked advanced metric called targets per route run (TPRR), which has a stronger correlation to Fantasy points than even the staples of Fantasy WR analysis, such as targets, air yards, or red zone data.
As I just mentioned, TPRR correlated more highly with Fantasy scoring over the past five seasons than any other opportunity-based stat I use. Among players with at least 60 targets, the correlation between targets per route and Fantasy points per route was 0.814. For reference, the correlation between raw targets and raw Fantasy points was 0.764.
The cutoff point of 60 targets is admittedly arbitrary, but the reasoning for finding a cutoff point was not. Because we're examining a rate stat, the volatility increases rather drastically the lower the target total is, which in turn increases the randomness of the correlation results.
Also, if you find yourself wondering which of targets or TPRR correlates more highly with year-long Fantasy scoring, of course, the answer is targets. No matter how high a player's TPRR is, he can only accumulate Fantasy points while on the field. So, as with any other stat, additional context is needed when considering how to properly use TPRR to evaluate a player's Fantasy outlook.
Ultimately, TPRR is a representation of a player's ability to demand targets from his quarterback. It displays the percentage of his routes on which he is targeted. Changing factors within an offense can cause a player's TPRR rate to fluctuate; no stat is perfect. But generally speaking, especially among the top receivers, TPRR rates remain fairly constant -- at least compared to many more frequently used Fantasy stats.
Among advanced metrics that I use, only yards per route run rivals targets per route run in terms of correlation. YPRR's correlation to Fantasy points per route (0.892 r-squared) was slightly higher than TPRR's correlation, which should come as no surprise. Yards per route run is a descriptive stat -- it tells the story of what happened, while stats derived from volume-based metrics such as targets and air yards tell a story of what could have happened or what is most likely to happen in the future under similar circumstances.
Here are just a few examples of how TPRR data has pointed to Fantasy breakouts.
Keenan Allen's 20 percent increase from Year 1 to Year 2 gave us a clear indicator that big things could be coming. Following that up with another substantial step forward in Year 3 strengthened Allen's case for potential superstardom.
2013 TPRR -- 20.4 percent
2014 TPRR -- 24.5 percent
2015 TPRR -- 26.6 percent
2016 -- NA injured
2017 TPRR -- 29.1 percent
He missed the 2016 season, but it all came together for Allen in 2017 -- in Year 5, Allen crushed his previous career-high (77) for receptions with 102 and finished as the WR3 in PPR scoring.
Allen's early-career progression could easily have been overlooked if not cognizant of his TPRR rates. His production fell off in a big way from Year 1 to Year 2 as Philip Rivers led the league in interceptions and had one of his worst seasons as a pro in 2014. In 2015, Allen only played eight games -- his per-route improvements across the board may have been missed due to the smaller sample size. He is one of many examples of how useful per-route data is in contextualizing and understanding a player's output and outlook.
Michael Thomas' massive Year 2 and 3 rates after posting a strong 21.8 percent rate as a rookie certainly teased that WR1 potential was within his range of outcomes. He fully realized that potential in 2019.
2016 TPRR -- 21.8 percent
2017 TPRR -- 28.7 percent
2018 TPRR -- 27.8 percent
2019 TPRR -- 30.9 percent
His ascent peaked in 2019 with an NFL-record 149 catches.
Adams' insane 29 percent TPRR in 2019 flew under the radar because of injuries, providing another important TPRR use case.
2016 TPRR -- 19.1 percent
2017 TPRR -- 23.2 percent
2018 TPRR -- 25.9 percent
2019 TPRR -- 29.7 percent
2020 TPRR -- 32.1 percent
2021 TPRR -- 30.7 percent
After finishing with a respectable 23.2 percent TPRR rate (27th among 102 qualified players) in 2017, Davante Adams' rate rose to a top-10 mark in 2018. He played just 12 games in 2019, but Adams' 29.7 percent TPRR rate suggested that he was entering his own class as a target hog.
Adams' career progression and increasing opportunity culminated to produce a massive 31.5 percent TPRR rate in 2020 -- the third-highest mark since 2010. In terms of steady year-over-year TPRR improvement, Adams is the prototype.
In 2021, we saw Adams' rate dip slightly -- I would expect something similar in a new environment that presents more competition for targets in 2022.
Brown's target hog numbers just continue to grow more astronomical with each passing season, and any improvement to his per-route rates in Year 4 will push him into never-before-seen territory for a 25-year-old receiver.
2019 TPRR -- 21.4 percent
2020 TPRR -- 26.1 percent
2021 TPRR -- 30.3 percent
When on the field in 2021, Brown demanded a higher percentage of his team's targets and air yards than any player in the NFL.
When he demanded a target on 26 percent of his routes in Year 2, Brown became one of 12 receivers since 2010 to do so in an age-23 or younger season.
Brown's absurd 30 percent rate in Year 3 put him in even more exclusive company. The only other receiver since 2010 to draw a target on over 30 percent of their routes in an age-24 or younger season: Calvin Johnson.
Will Brown's rates translate in a new offense? That's anybody's guess -- I did dive into his route compatibility with Jalen Hurts here if you are curious about the data that we have to speculate with.
What we've seen from Jefferson through two seasons is wildly impressive. Big things could be coming in Year 3.
2020 TPRR -- 23.8 percent
2021 TPRR -- 26.8 percent
2022 TPRR -- TBD
A.J. Brown's rate climbed by 18 percent from Year 1 to Year 2 and then another 16 percent from Year 2 to Year 3. Overall, his rate improved by 42 percent from Year 1 to Year 3. Davante Adams saw a similar increase (36 percent) from Year 1 to Year 3. Keenan Allen's rate increased by 30 percent from his rookie season to his third year in the NFL; Michael Thomas' rate climbed by 28 percent.
Jefferson's rate rose by 13 percent from Year 1 to Year 2. Another 13 percent jump would give him a 30.2 percent TPRR rate. To get to 30 percent in Year 3, Jefferson's rate would increase by 26 percent from his rookie campaign -- the receivers above make that seem like a realistic possibility!
To be fair, these receivers were hand-picked after the fact, and none of them started with as high of a rate as Jefferson did. A more accurate group to compare him to would be other receivers who drew a target on at least 23 percent of their rookie routes. That group -- seven players over the past 10 seasons -- saw just a 14 percent increase from Year 1 to Year 3 on average.
Kelvin Benjamin is weighing that list down -- more prolific receivers such as Odell Beckham (+8%) and Mike Evans (+24%) were able to post notable improvements to their rates over their first three years even while drawing targets at an exceptionally high rate as a rookie. It's possible that Jefferson could do the same -- the question is, do we think that he is an Evans or OBJ-caliber player?
If so, 2022 could be the year that Jefferson joins truly elite company.
There have been only 11 receivers to draw a target on at least 30 percent of their routes over the past 10 seasons:
33% -- Julio Jones, A.J. Green
32% -- Davante Adams, Demaryius Thomas
31% -- Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Antonio Brown
30% -- A.J. Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Johnson, Mike Evans
Does Jefferson's name belong on that list? If he proves so, Jefferson will likely finish as Fantasy's WR1 in 2022.
Follow-up pieces related to this article:
TPRR Breakouts for 2022
TPRR Busts for 2022
I'll also be including a full 2021 TPRR leaderboard for you to reference at the bottom of each article. If you have any questions about TPRR until then, feel free to ask me on Twitter.