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    Fantasy Baseball: Week 15 pitcher Start 'Em & Sit 'Em

    Fantasy baseball expert William Dubiel previews every starting pitching matchups for the upcoming week, with start and sit calls for every game.
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    Unless you've got a roster stacked with high-end pitchers you'll start against any matchup, you'll probably need to keep a close eye on the schedule as you get ready to set your lineup for the upcoming week. You'll need to know which of your starters have bad matchups, which are set for two starts in the upcoming week, and which fringe-y options might just be worth going out to grab on waivers. 

    Which is why you'll definitely want to check out SportsLine's weekly pitching Start 'Em & Sit 'Em chart from William Dubiel. A 15-year Fantasy veteran, Dubiel got his start in Fantasy baseball and has done work for Rotoballer, Metro US and multiple other outlets during his career. He was named the No. 4 MLB Ranker for the 2017 MLB season, so if there's anybody who can give you an edge in your Fantasy baseball league, it's him.

    Now, he's helping you set your pitching lineup each week. William goes through every starting pitcher matchup for the upcoming week, making start and sit picks for each game. Here are some of William's calls for Week 15:

    • 30-year-old "rookie" Merrill Kelly has emerged as one of the best pitchers on the Diamondbacks staff over the last month. Not unlike Miles Mikolas, after Kelly fizzled out as an MLB prospect, he tried his luck in Asia, where he played in the KBO for the last three years. Kelly has been in Arizona's starting rotation for the entire season, and to this point he's put together a 7-7 record with a decent 3.93 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Pretty pedestrian, but note that over his last five starts he's gone 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA (including four quality starts). Perhaps more noteworthy than the victories and low ERA is the sudden spike in strikeouts. 32 of his 77 total strikeouts came in those last five starts, and while some of that could be him thriving on some of baseball's more impotent offenses (SF, TOR, NYM) the strikeouts are helping legitimize that falling ERA. Even on the road against the Dodgers, I'm trusting Kelly to put up a usable outing in any format.
    • The Marlins have a plethora of young, talented arms in their organization right now, and while Zac Gallen may be grabbing headlines right now, I'm intrigued by Elieser Hernandez. Like Gallen and fellow prospect Jordan Yamamoto, Hernandez has flashed legitimate swing-and-miss stuff at every level of the minors. Hernandez has a decent if unspectacular 4.34 ERA so far, and since he has only thrown in four total games (three starts) it's difficult to read too much into what we've seen so far. But, if our first look counts for anything, I'm really encouraged by his 19:4 strikeout to walk ratio through 18.2 innings pitched. The control is particularly impressive, and while he is currently outperforming his minor league history in that department, an improvement once he transitions to major league hitters is not something to dismiss. With Caleb Smith set to return from the IL soon, one of Gallen, Yamamoto or Hernandez will likely be sent down. Hernandez's start against the middling Nationals offense could be make-or-break for his immediate major league prospects, and I'm betting on him to perform.
    • A deep dive into Anibal Sanchez's 2018 campaign, in which he pitched to a 2.83 ERA across 136.2 innings, revealed that his numbers were propped up by a bit of luck. His SIERA was more than a full run higher than his ERA, he posted the highest left-on-base percentage of his career (79.4%) and enjoyed the lowest BABIP (.255) since his rookie season in 2006. Easy to dismiss, except for the fact that it seems to be happening again. His SIERA is almost a full run higher than his current 4.02 ERA, he has unusually high LOB% and BABIPs again, and I'm confident his luck will run out sooner rather than later. But, it likely won't be this week — Sanchez faces off against the aforementioned Elieser Hernandez, and his potential is NOT reflected by the Marlins' 29th-ranked offense.
    • Clubhouse antics aside, Jason Vargas has pitched pretty well this season. The 36-year-old hasn't been blowing anybody away, but his 3.66 ERA is his lowest in nearly half a decade. He's lost almost two miles per hour off his fastball since last season, and he's now sitting at just above 85 consistently. His SIERA is over 5.00, so the house of cards should come crashing down any day now. This might be the week that breaks him. Vargas has a two-start week and based on recent fantasy performance he profiles as a decent streaming option for anybody looking to collect some strikeouts and a pair of chances at a win. But the matchups are too poor to try to weather the storm. His first turn will come against the Yankees' fourth-ranked offense, and with that lineup almost back to 100%, I'm running from just about any starting pitcher they face, and certainly someone as low-caliber as Vargas. His second start is home against the Phillies, and while that's undoubtedly a better matchup than the first, it's not great — the Phillies' OPS is 40 points higher against lefties than righties. Hard pass on Vargas even in a two-start week.

    So, how will you know which other pitchers to start and which to avoid? ... Join SportsLine right now to get access to the tools and date that can help you make the right decision!

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    William Dubiel

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