Euro 2016: The best angle on Italy-Germany showdown

Italy vs. Germany

Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux, France, Sat., 3 p.m. ET

Italy +300
Germany +120
Draw +200
Total 2 (Under -130)

How they got here

It's difficult to call an international power like Italy a surprise quarterfinalist. But that's the only way to put the Azzurri's tournament thus far in perspective. Aside from a hiccup against Ireland while resting key contributors, Antonio Conte's side has the tournament's two most impressive triumphs -- beating Belgium and Spain by the same 2-0 score.

Germany didn't look sharp early in the group stage but any fear of them underachieving this tournament was banished after a 3-0 pasting of Slovakia. Through four matches the German defense has been impenetrable; they're the only unit to keep four clean sheets this tournament. There's a reason Joachim Low's bunch are World Champions, and they seem hell bent on adding a European crown to their resume.

Who to watch

Italy is known for its defensive posture, forcing opponents to operate with precision in the offensive third if they're to put one past Gianluigi Buffon. A willingness to outwork opponents or as Conte would put it, "spitting blood" after 90, separates them from the competition. The problem for Italy entering the quarterfinals is limited midfield depth.

Daniele De Rossi will miss the match with a lingering thigh injury and his backup, Thiago Motta, is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Their absence puts an undue amount of stress on a Juventus-laden back line led by Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini.

Germany attacks with brutal efficiency when things are going well. Low has tinkered with the lineup, trying to identify the best combinations to stress opposing defenses. The 1-2 punch of Julian Draxler and Mario Gomez up top worked in the round of 16, showing more promise going forward than the side stymied by Poland in group play. When all else fails the Germans rely on stalwart keeper Manuel Neuer to erase mistakes at the back. His task should be more than reasonable against a limited Italian attack.

What will happen

Italy won't be out-hustled. But do they have the talent to slow down a German side just starting to round into form? Limited depth at midfield puts Italy in a precarious position trying to win possession 35 yards from the goal.

This German side has trouble scoring compared to previous editions, but the pedigree remains the same. They haven't been given enough credit for their stinginess on defense and ultimately, when you don't give up goals, it's hard to lose. Germany should win but it might take them more than 90 minutes to break down this Italian defense.

The Play: Germany to keep a clean sheet -- "Yes" +120