Euro 2016 Knockout Stage: Where does the value lie?

Group play is officially in the books. Say what you will about the new expanded format that drew criticism, we saw much more compelling matches in the third set, creating drama for the ages. With 16 nations vying for continental supremacy starting with three matches Saturday, the best storylines are still to come.

The Favorites

Germany 9/2; France 4/1

France and Germany are no strangers to international success.

Germany are the world champions while the French maintain a historical track record of major international triumph in tournaments played on home soil.

However, both find themselves on the more difficult side of the draw, the bracket of death if you will, facing potential land mines at every stop. Assuming Germany gets through Slovakia in their opener, they will meet the winner of Spain-Italy before a potential showdown with France.

Les Bluez open with Ireland before meeting the winner of England-Iceland. If all goes well they'll see Germany, Italy or Spain in the semis.

Both sides secured seven points during the group stage. Germany kept three clean sheets while France only conceded once.

The biggest problem for both proud soccer nations is their lack of sustained firepower up front. Neither has shown the killer instinct yet that will be required to win four difficult matches in knockout play. If you're forcing my feet to the fire between the two sides I'm pegging to meet in the semifinals, I like the total package and championship form Germany displays, especially at the current price of 9/2.

Besides, winning a true road game won't intimidate a German side that only two years ago annihilated Brazil en route to the 2014 World Cup title.

The Value

Croatia 15/2

Casual observers of international soccer might not give much credence to Croatia as a soccer power.

Don't tell that to the proud European nation that defied the odds against Spain in their final group match, erasing an early deficit to book passage into the knockout phase as group winners.

Thus Croatia can avoid Spain, Italy, Germany, France, and England until the finals. I'm not saying dispatching Portugal in their opener or Belgium in the semis will be easy, yet it beats the alternative path. Ivan Rakitic, Ivan Perisic, Luka Modric, and Mario Mandzukic give them a boatload of world-class talent very few nations can match.

My lone concern with the Croatians is a leaky defense that's surrendered three goals in this tournament. I know they're not 25/1, like we saw before the tournament, but this side has the look and feel of a group with enough firepower to keep playing well into July.

The Long Shot

Poland 28/1

The Achilles heel for Poland entering group play appeared to be a shaky back line.

Nearly 300 minutes of soccer and three clean sheets later, what was once deemed a weakness looks to be the strength. Poland hasn't won the possession battle in either of their last two games, even failing to generate a shot on target in their draw against Germany. The lack of creativity up front under Robert Lewandowski's direction is troubling, yet it's the defensive strength that gives me reason to be optimistic.

Keeper Lukasz Fabianski has shown flashes of brilliance, turning away all eight shots he faced against Germany and Ukraine. If Poland's defense remains resolute and the offense finds its stride, this is a smaller soccer nation with a draw tailor-made for a Cinderella-like fairy tale.