Aaron Judge home run odds: Yankees star on pace for 63 homers, remains long shot at sportsbooks to break Roger Maris' AL record of 61

New York Yankees slugger and AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge is getting hot again, having homered in the first two games of New York's series at the Los Angeles Angels to reach 51 bombs on the year. Judge is now on pace for 63 home runs, which would break the American League record of 61 set by Roger Maris in 1961. However, Caesars Sportsbook still lists Judge as a -250 favorite to finish Under 61.5 homers, with the Over at +200.

Judge hit a solo homer Monday off Angels reliever Ryan Tepera to become only the 10th player in MLB history to record multiple 50-home run seasons. On Tuesday, Judge hit a three-run shot in the fourth inning off Mike Mayers to reach 51 and increase his pace to 63. Judge is just the third Yankee to record multiple 50-homer seasons, joining Babe Ruth (four) and Mickey Mantle (two) and is the first Yankees player with 50 before September since Maris (51) in 1961. Judge is one homer shy of his career high set in his rookie season of 2017, when he was AL Rookie of the Year and second in the AL MVP voting.

"I've never seen anything like it," said Yankees starter Jameson Taillon – who left Tuesday's start injured after taking a comebacker off his arm (X-rays were negative). "It just feels like any time he's out there, he's got a chance to do something special. It doesn't matter what scouting report you have or whether you execute your pitch or not. He's just so good that you can make a good pitch and he can still hit it out of the park. It's special."

To reach 63, Judge would need to hit one homer every 2.7 games over the Yankees' final 32 -- assuming Judge plays in all of them. New York may have little to play for as a team over the final week or two of the season if it is locked into the AL's No. 2 seed. Teams also may start intentionally walking Judge like the Angels did twice on Monday.

In 1961, Maris hit 51 home runs in the Yankees' first 130 games, which is New York's current total. That was a rate of one every 2.5 team games, and Maris hit 10 the rest of the way in the team's final 33 games as they played 163 with an early-season tie. That was a rate of one every 3.3 team games.

DraftKings has slightly different odds on Judge at 61.5, with Over at +180 and Under -225. It also gives odds on Judge over/under 73.5 with Over a +2500 long shot and Under -20000. Of course, Barry Bonds hit a record 73 in 2001.

The Yankees finish their series in Anaheim tonight, and it's lefty Patrick Sandoval (4-9, 3.05) on the mound for the Halos. Judge has not faced him in a regular-season game and has 13 homers in 116 at-bats off southpaws this year. He's +220 to go yard tonight. 

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