2023 Big 12 winner odds, futures betting strategy: Texas, Oklahoma favored in final season as conference members
Our preview of the 2023 college football season continues with the Big 12
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The epicenter of the latest college conference shuffle seismic activity has been the Big 12, not a totally unfamiliar development across the past quarter-century. The conference has often been directly responsible for some of the shifting of the sport's tectonic plates, and is doing so again this fall after culling three of the highest-profile members (UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston) from the American while also landing a big independent fish in BYU. There will be no pause to movement in 2024, either, as Texas and Oklahoma complete their transfer out of the league and into the SEC, which for a short while seemed to signal a death knell for the Big 12 after the transfer announcement two summers ago. But thanks to some aggressive maneuvers in the TV market by new commissioner Brett Yormark, the conference was able to secure a tasty new media deal and continues on the prowl for expansion, especially with two voids left by the Longhorns and Sooners.
A popular rumor has Yormark looking to pounce upon the wobbling Pac-12, wounded by its own pending departures of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten, and courting the "four corners" quartet of Utah, Colorado, and Arizona schools to join BYU to form a legit western flank of the league. That door hasn't yet shut, and remains open until the Pac-12 secures a new media deal (which, as of mid-July, it hasn't yet) that includes all four. The rumor mill also includes perennial bridesmaid Memphis as a potential target, and perhaps a resurgent Tulane, as well as a handful of current Mountain West entries like UNLV (though the Runnin' Rebels and a few others have apparently been told they won't share in any of the TV revenue in the new media deal should they wish to enlist; don't expect that particular show to drop any time soon). Stay tuned for further developments.
Of course the pending Texas and Oklahoma departures, and their last trips around the Big 12 track, are featured storylines for the fall. Both figure to get the best shots from the many members they will leave behind. Both teams will be ending decades-old rivalries. Among the apparent casualties moving forward will be the annual Bedlam bloodbath between the Sooners and Oklahoma State, slated for its final renewal (for the immediate future, at least) on November 4 in Stillwater. Cowboys HC Mike Gundy, for one, doesn't expect it to resume anytime soon. "Nobody likes it," Gundy recently said, "but Bedlam's out the window." Upcoming autumns will be poorer for the loss of this heated rivalry, but the cycle of college football could always revive this in-state battle at some point down the road.
Note that the old Texas A&M-Texas grudge match, a late November staple for years in the SWC and the earlier years of the Big 12, is slated to renew when the Longhorns make the switch to the SEC next year. And we suppose there is always the chance Bedlam could be temporarily resurrected by a bowl matchup, but it won't be the same as before. So, enjoy this last edition of Bedlam in November while you can.
Speaking of things not being the same, that was theme of the Big 12 last season, when TCU would roar from nowhere under new head coach Sonny Dykes all of the way through the regular season as an unbeaten. Despite losing in overtime to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game, the Horned Frogs nonetheless qualified for the FBS Playoff before taking out Michigan in a thrilling semifinal that was treated like a national title win in Fort Worth.
Unfortunately, the Horned Frogs looked spent for the title game vs. Georgia, but not even the ghost of Sammy Baugh was expecting TCU to advance that far in Dykes' debut. Meanwhile, long-dormant Kansas showed signs of revival under second-year coach Lance Leipold, qualifying for a bowl for the first time in over a decade. Nowhere to be found in the conference championship game was either Texas or Oklahoma, which was the case in the preceding 2021 as well. Indeed, six different entries--TCU, K-State, OK State, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Iowa State–have appeared in the last three title tilts. The league has emerged as perhaps the best-balanced of all Power 5 conferences, with no acknowledged soft touches, especially after the reemergence of the Jayhawks.
On the field, things have been undeniably fun the past couple of years in the conference, with plenty of competitive balance, offensive fireworks, and hair-raising finishes. Consensus opinion seems to be that the new members further enhance the parity this fall, as each figures to be able to compete in their new neighborhood, but that the eventual winner comes from one of the existing members. Maybe Texas, five years removed from its last Big 12 title game appearance, goes out in style. Meanwhile, many are casting a wary eye upon Oklahoma and the direction of the program under second-year coahc Brent Venables, whose debut in Norman flopped as badly as the performance of the New York Mets before the MLB All-Star break. (Venables, along with West Virginia's Neal Brown, and perhaps Houston's Dana Holgorsen, likely enter 2023 on the hottest coaching seats.)
Given the balance displayed in recent years by the league, reflected by the rotating contestants in the conference title game, we suppose it wouldn't a huge surprise if several of the entries are good enough to land in the December league finale at Arlington, even as the oddsmakers seem to believe the Longhorns and Sooners are several notches above the rest. We're not sure we agree!
Per Caesars Sportsbook
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