2022 first NFL coach fired odds: Panthers' Matt Rhule on hottest seat entering Week 1, cannot afford loss vs. Browns

Technically, just one NFL coach was fired during the 2021 regular season: Jacksonville's Urban Meyer, who when combining both the off-field and on-field issues may have had the worst 13-game tenure in league history. The first coach actually out was the Raiders' Jon Gruden, who "resigned" because of those embarrassing emails. Thus, it's important to note the wording on any first coach fired this season prop as it also includes simply losing his job in any fashion. SportsLine oddsmakers favor Carolina's Matt Rhule.

To lure Rhule from Baylor ahead of the 2020 season, Panthers owner David Tepper paid the school a $6 million buyout and signed Rhule to a whopping $62 million contract. Rhule did a terrific job at Baylor and Temple before that, but it's not like he won multiple national titles as Meyer did. Rhule was nearly canned after last season when Carolina started 3-0 but finished 5-12.

According to reports, Tepper (a newer owner when the hire was made) has since admitted embarrassment over giving Rhule that contract. Like most ex-college coaches used to running the full show at that level, Rhule tends to micromanage and also has the final say on roster decisions. He fired once-highly regarded offensive coordinator Joe Brady after last season, blaming him for not sharing his vision.

Rhule's teams have had poor quarterback play, and his future is now clearly tied to that of new starting QB Baker Mayfield. If the Panthers lose at home to Mayfield's former Browns team and journeyman Jacoby Brissett on Sunday, Rhule's seat will get scorching hot. Should the Panthers then lose Week 2 at a bad Giants team, Rhule might not see October.

This writer can't remember a coach being canned until after Week 4, though. Sometimes, owners prefer to wait until a bye week to fire a coach. Carolina's is Week 13.

Most NFL owners would be thrilled if their head coach led a team to a 12-5 record and a division title, but most owners aren't the Cowboys' Jerry Jones. Dallas accomplished both things in 2021, but the team was incredibly undisciplined and lead the league with 127 penalties. The Cowboys were upset at home in the divisional round by San Francisco thanks in large part to 14 more penalties.

Jones apparently never considered firing McCarthy in the offseason despite two potential head coaching replacements on staff in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator (and former Falcons head coach) Dan Quinn. Jones may not be as patient now that ex-Saints coach and one-time Cowboys assistant head coach Sean Payton is available – although any team hiring him would have to give the Saints compensation. It seems unlikely that Payton would leave his TV gig in the middle of a season. The Dallas bye is Week 9 if Jones feels the need to pull the plug in-season.

Seattle most likely isn't going to fire Pete Carroll as he is the best coach that franchise has ever had, but at 70 years old might Carroll simply step away if Seattle starts, say, 1-5? That record is very possible in a rebuilding year with Geno Smith at quarterback.

Ron Rivera won two NFL Coach of the Year Awards with Carolina but is 14-19 with Washington and there is so much apathy surrounding that franchise that Rivera could be a scapegoat if the Commanders start slowly. Should the team lose at home to Jacksonville on Sunday in front of a non-sellout, Rivera would rise on this list. Then again, the Commanders might have to replace their owner first.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which NFL coach will be the first to be fired/leave his job?

• Matt Rhule +250
• Ron Rivera +500
• Pete Carroll +600
• Mike McCarthy +700
• Frank Reich +900
• Kliff Kingsbury +1000
• Robert Saleh +1200
• Kevin Stefanski +1300
• Mike Vrabel +1500

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