2022-23 NBA MVP odds: Bettors crushing futures on Luka Doncic, Zion Williamson

Hard as it is to believe, the 2022-23 NBA season tips off Tuesday night, so we'll start hitting on some futures odds trends. Today, let's look at the 2022-23 MVP odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Two players stand out from the pack by far in terms of betting action at the book: The Mavericks' Luka Doncic and Pelicans' Zion Williamson.

Doncic is the +390 MVP favorite and there's really no surprise there. He's always among the leaders and appears destined to win at least one award in his career if he stays healthy and fit. Luka admitted he wasn't in shape to start last year and he wasn't quite the same player for several weeks but ended up putting up typical numbers: 28.4 points, 9.1 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game. He was named first-team All-NBA for the third straight seasons, joining Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan and Max Zaslofsky (!?) as the only players to earn the honor three times before age 24.

Still 23, Doncic might have to carry an even bigger load this year as the Mavs lost their second-best player, guard Jalen Brunson, in free agency to the Knicks. Doncic and Joel Embiid had opened as +600 co-favorites for NBA MVP, but Luka's odds have dropped because he has taken more than three times as much money as any other player, a whopping 36.9%. He's also second in tickets at 17.1%. One Indiana bettor dropped $8,000 on Doncic at +600 and another $3,000 on +500 for a total potential win of $63,000.

"I think this level of action makes sense, just from the standpoint that Luka is probably the most important player to a team," said David Lieberman, lead NBA trader at Caesars Sportsbook. "If you take him off the Mavericks, they're probably not a playoff team without him. With [Nikola] Jokic winning the past two, it feels like that they'll give it to someone else and Luka slides into that obvious new choice. Luka is such a dynamic player, and he's still young so he can take another step forward."

Doncic and the Mavericks open Wednesday in Phoenix, where they stunningly won Game 7 of 2022 Western Conference Semifinals in a rout.

The 22-year-old Williamson is an MVP-caliber talent, but his issue is of course staying healthy. The former No. 1 overall pick was limited to 24 games as a rookie, 61 in 2020-21 (with MVP-type numbers at 27.0 points on 61.1% shooting, 7.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists) and then nary a game played last year. Zion reportedly is healthy and thinner for the rising Pelicans. Williamson was +6000 on the MVP odds when first released, and he's now +1800 because Zion is first in tickets at 17.9% and second in handle at 12.1%.

"One of the biggest factors is how the reports this offseason have noted that he's in the best shape of his life," Lieberman said. "He's been very good when he has played, but there's been questions about his health and weight. With the positive buzz about that, it makes sense that people were buying him as a longshot compared to tying your money on someone at like +500. Now Zion is +1800, and his odds reflect the exposure on him more so than his true odds of winning MVP. Also with futures markets, there will sometimes be a hype train and everyone will want to hop on it. They don't want to have FOMO (fear of missing out) even at like +2500, especially if he starts dominating out of the gate and that price goes down even more."

Williamson and the Pelicans open next Wednesday in a marquee matchup in Brooklyn. Nets star Kevin Durant is +1000 to win MVP. KD is just 19th in tickets at 1.0% and 20th in handle at 0.4%.

Two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets is +1200 and not getting much love for a three-peat. He's taken 2.0% of the tickets (15th) and 0.9% of the handle (13th).

Looking for the best picks against the spread, sharp plays on the total and props you can take straight to the pay window? Join Jonathan Coachman on The Early Edge as he speaks with SportsLine's top handicappers to preview the day's biggest games. We promise to keep it short and sweet and to put some green in your pocket. The Early Edge is in your feed every single day by 11 a.m. ET. Subscribe right here on YouTube to watch daily, plus don't miss The Early Edge specials and live shows!