Illinois vs. No. 18 Iowa betting trends, spread, odds: Coach Bret Bielema out (COVID) for Illini, who have been best under total bet in college football this year

Illinois was not likely to win at No. 17 Iowa in Big Ten action regardless Saturday but it will be a bit more challenging now with Illini coach Bret Bielema ruled out after testing positive for COVID. Bielema is vaccinated and received a booster shot last week but still will not be allowed to coach. Illinois is a 12-point underdog at Caesars Sportsbook with a small total of 38 – and in one regard, the Illini have been the best bet on the total in the nation this year.

Bielema, who was hired by Illinois in December 2020, has led the Illini to a 4-6 record. They would need an upset win this Saturday and then beat Northwestern next week to get bowl eligible. Bielema has helped lead two upsets already, a 20-18 nine-overtime win at then-No. 7 Penn State on Oct. 23 and 14-6 at then-No. 20 Minnesota on Nov. 6. Illinois comes off its bye week.

No team has been a better Under the total bet this year than the Illini as they are 8-1-1 to the Under, a cover percentage on that lean at 88.9. Of course, that also means Illini are the worst Over team with an Over cover percentage of 11.1 percent. Their one Over game was Week 2 in a 37-30 loss to UTSA. Their past eight have gone Under and oftentimes by a wide margin.

The Illini are last in the Big Ten in scoring at 16.8 ppg but pretty good on defense in allowing 21.6 ppg. That defense has allowed 13.3 fewer points per game from last season, the second-best improvement in the nation.

Iowa can still win the Big Ten West but needs to win out and have Wisconsin lose once because the Hawkeyes lost at the Badgers 27-7 on Oct. 30. Iowa closes next week at Nebraska, and Wisconsin is home to the Huskers on Saturday and at Minnesota in the finale. Iowa also has been a good Under bet this year with seven of its 10 landing there.

The Hawkeyes have won seven straight in this series and six straight at home -- Illinois' last win at Kinnick Stadium was in 1999 when Kirk Ferentz was in first year as Iowa's head coach.

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