2021 NCAA Tournament Final Four odds: Gonzaga opens as historic spread favorite vs. UCLA; national title drought for schools west of Mississippi River will end

The 2021 NCAA Tournament Final Four on Saturday from Indianapolis will feature No. 1 seed Baylor vs. No. 2 Houston in the first game at 5:14 p.m. ET and No. 1 and unbeaten Gonzaga vs. No. 11 UCLA in the 8:34 p.m. ET nightcap – both shown on CBS. The Zags opened as historic 14-point favorites on the William Hill Sportsbook college basketball odds, and we are assured that a school located west of the Mississippi River wins the national title for the first time in nearly 15 years.

This marks the first time that all four national semifinal teams are from west of the Mississippi River. No school from west of that USA landmark has won it all since Kansas in 2008 (before that Arizona in 1997). Texas Tech came close in the 2019 final, losing in overtime to Virginia.

Gonzaga (30-0) is two wins from becoming the first team since the 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers (finished exactly 32-0 as Gonzaga would) as unbeaten national champions, and the Zags would certainly go down as one of the best single-season clubs in NCAA history – especially offensively.

Coach Mark Few's team is only the sixth in NCAA Tournament history since the field expanded to 64 in 1985 to win each of its first four games by at least 15 points. Two of the previous five won it all, including the most recent school: UConn in 2004.

After thumping No. 6 USC 85-66 in the Elite Eight, the Zags have won 27 straight games this season by double digits, an NCAA Division I record. All but one of their victories (87-82 over West Virginia on Dec. 2) are by double digits. Still, it's shocking to see Gonzaga open as a 14-point favorite over No. 11 UCLA.

That's easily the biggest spread in any Final Four game dating back to 1996, and if it rises slightly would be the largest spread in any Final Four or national title game. In the '96 championship game, Kentucky was -14 over Syracuse (UK won by nine). Double-digit underdogs in the 2021 NCAA Tournament are 8-6 against the spread. UCLA has not been a double-digit dog this season.

"You just don't see 14 in the semis, it's a monster number," said  Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. "I can't see it going any higher than that. Michigan was -7.5 against UCLA and it went down to -6.5, so the professionals were on UCLA there. So I'm assuming that they'll be on them again here, but I don't know for sure. It could very well be a professionals versus the masses game."  

Gonzaga is now a -220 favorite at William Hill to win its first national title. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Zags a 58.2 percent chance – that equates to a betting number of around -140. UCLA is a +2000 long shot to win it all (2.4 percent chance via model) and is the sixth double-digit seed to reach the Final Four since seeding began in the NCAA Tournament in 1979. The previous five all lost in the Final Four.

Baylor, meanwhile, is +280 to win the title and a 5-point favorite over former Southwest Conference rival Houston (+800) in the Final Four. The model gives the Bears a 24.4 percent chance of a championship and the Cougars 15.1 percent.

"Houston-Baylor is a great matchup," said Bogdanovich. "Early indications are that we'll need the dog there. I think we'll need Houston pretty big when it's all said and done. This is the first time they aren't playing a double-digit seed, so it's a major step up in competition for them."  

Needless to say, Gonzaga would be favored in the national title game – the Zags to beat the Bears is a +125 favorite for an exact result. UCLA over Houston is a +7500 long shot.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Projected national title game odds (sorry, UCLA fans):

Gonzaga -5 vs. Baylor

Gonzaga -9.5 vs. Houston

Who are the Fantasy baseball sleepers and breakouts you need to draft this season? And which overlooked starting pitcher could provide HUGE value? ... Join SportsLine right now to get our highly popular Optimal Rankings Cheat Sheets, all from the model that's simulated the entire season 10,000 times!