Week 13 College Football odds, predictions: Parlay picks, best bets for SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 for the weekend of November 26th, 2022

Is it possible to love rivalry week in college football and hate it at the same time? If so, that's me every season for eternity. Don't get me wrong, when it comes to rivalries in sports, there is none better than Michigan-Ohio State football. And this year, with both undefeated and in the top three for the first time since 2006, the stakes are unbelievably high as you well know. You can have your Yankees-Red Sox, Celtics-Lakers, Packers-Bears, and Duke-North Carolina college basketball. I'll take Buckeyes-Wolverines all day, every day.

As far as I'm concerned, I'll never be more excited for a regular season college football team that didn't involve my alma mater, Arizona, than I was for the '06 No. 1 vs. No. 2 OSU-UM game. The hype going into the game was incredible and with legendary Wolverines coach Bo Schembechler sadly passing away several days before the game, it just took on a different meaning. If there's one game I wish I could've gone to in my lifetime, it's that one surprisingly. Ohio State's 42-39 victory propelled them and eventual Heisman Trophy winner to the National Championship Game against future Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer in Glendale, AZ. I was there for that one and wish I wasn't. Final score: 41-14 Gators.

The greatest play that will ever occur in college football history as I see it also happened in a rivalry game. What I consider the most hated matchup among any two teams in sports, the Iron Bowl, Auburn vs. Alabama, was decided on one of the most freakish of plays in 2013. Chris Davis of Auburn ran back the missed 'Bama field goal 109 yards on the game's final play for the winning score. If you haven't seen the play before, well, you must have been living under a rock. I've watched it hundreds of times and will for the remainder of my life. It's the best and worst that can happen when rivals collide. If I was an Alabama fan, I would never get over it.

The rivalry I care most about is the Territorial Cup, which boasts the oldest trophy in college football (since 1899), Arizona vs. Arizona State. On Friday, I'll be attending 22nd game between the two teams and I'll be honest, I absolutely hate that I can't will myself not to go. The game makes me incredibly anxious; it doesn't matter if I'm in front of my friendly fans at Arizona Stadium in Tucson or in hostile territory at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. 

Do you know the feeling of dropping from great heights on a roller coaster? Some people enjoy it though I'm not one of them. That's exactly how I feel walking out of a stadium after a loss to the Sun Devils. I have never been more disappointed leaving a stadium than I was after the 2010 edition in Tucson, when ASU blocked two extra points including one in double overtime to win by one. It was the closest I've ever come to showing emotion leaving a ball game. But four years later, when No. 11 Arizona beat No. 13 ASU 42-35 in the most celebrated matchup of the teams in my adult lifetime, I don't think I've ever been happier after a sporting event that I attended. Fortunately, the only Territorial Cup game I missed since 2000 was the Sun Devils' 70-7 COVID-year beatdown of my Wildcats in Tucson. They did us a favor by not allowing fans in the stadium that year.

The season ends for both teams on Friday. ASU is closing out a miserable 3-8 year and searching for its new coach, while Arizona, 4-8, looks to continue their positive momentum heading into the offseason. I'm hoping the five-year run of defeats to their rivals finally ends for Arizona. I really don't want to have to wait at least another year for the trophy to head back to its rightful owner in Tucson (Arizona leads the series 49-45-1). I'll pick this game, as well as Ohio State-Michigan, the Iron Bowl, Apple Cup, and more below in this column.

On to the picks, where a 7-7-1 week put me at 83-91-3 with two more regular season weeks and bowl games to get me back into positive territory. I hit my first ACC parlay of the season so hopefully we can cash a few more before conference parlays 2023.

Once again, the purpose of this column each week is to find the best parlay bets by conference. I'll try to keep each wager between two and four picks, but the combined parlay of my favorite picks at the bottom of the column each week will be our lottery ticket. If we hit even just one of those all season, it should get us a guaranteed season profit.

All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Make sure to check out Wildcat Country, my Arizona Wildcats podcast with co-host Shane Dale! New episodes out weekly.

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SEC parlay picks

Mississippi State-Ole Miss Under 59
Florida +9.5 at Florida State
Auburn-Alabama Over 49
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

There's a 70% chance of rain in Oxford on Thanksgiving night, which doesn't favor the offenses in the 119th Egg Bowl. MSU-Ole Miss has gone Under 55 total points in each of their last four meetings despite it being a matchup of two offensive-minded coaches in Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin. This is one of my favorite plays of the week. Florida State has been fantastic, blowing out their last four opponents and covering each time. But with no offense meant towards Georgia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, and Louisiana, Florida is a lot more talented right now than any of those teams. Though I hate going against a team that's 8-2 against the spread this season, I think the Gators bounce back from a shocking loss to Vanderbilt last week and at least keep this one within a touchdown. I'm going against my logic about weather from earlier in this paragraph, as rain is forecast in Tuscaloosa for the Iron Bowl on Saturday. But this will likely be reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young's final game (don't expect him to play in a non-semifinal bowl game) and I expect him to light up the Tigers for at least three touchdown passes. I'd be surprised if Alabama scored less than 38, no matter the elements.

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 16-18-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 3 of 12 overall (+6.95 units)

BIG TEN parlay picks

Ohio State -7.5 vs. Michigan
Illinois -14 at Northwestern
Penn State -18 vs. Michigan State
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

I don't love any of these lines in the Big 10 this week and tried to avoid betting totals due to potential weather situations that are common in late-November in the midwest. My favorite pick of the trio this week is Ohio State over Michigan. I've thought the Buckeyes are clearly a top-two team with Georgia for the balance of the season and their tight game against Maryland last week still doesn't change that. OSU has the best offense in the country talent-wise and I love the motivation angle here as well. These two teams haven't played in Columbus since 2018 (the 2020 game was canceled) and OSU owes UM payback for last year's 42-27 domination that propelled the Wolverines into the College Football Playoff. Give me the Buckeyes by at least two scores here, even if Michigan star running back Blake Corum plays. Illinois has lost three straight but that pales in comparison to Northwestern's ten-game losing streak. The Illini got hosed last week with some bad calls that cost them a tight game. Look for them to take out those frustrations on their in-state rivals this week. I could see this being like the NW-Wisconsin game on October 8th, which finished 42-7 Badgers in Evanston. Penn State hasn't played a close game since their Week 1 comeback win over Purdue. Outside of that four-point win on the road, no Nittany Lions game has been closer than ten points. They are the third-best team in the Big Ten, well behind OSU and Michigan, but a big win here will seal likely a Cotton Bowl berth for them on January 2nd. It wouldn't shock me if the Spartans have mailed it in for the season after a shocking home loss to a bad Indiana team last week.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 17-20 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 12 overall (-13.5 units)

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ACC parlay picks

Georgia Tech +35.5 at Georgia
Duke +3.5 vs. Wake Forest
Pittsburgh-Miami Over 43.5
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

The rivalry between Georgia Tech and Georgia has arguably the most underrated rivalry name in sports, "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate." Though the Bulldogs have won the last two meetings by a combined score of 97-7, I love the fight the Yellow Jackets have shown, including erasing a 17-0 deficit in Chapel Hill last week and holding the potent Tar Heels. UNC, who had lost only once to that point, was held scoreless the rest of the way in a 21-17 GT win. I think Georgia gets up big early and rests their starters in advance of the SEC Championship Game last week. All Georgia Tech needs to do is score twice in some capacity and I believe they'll cover. Why are the oddsmakers still loving on Wake Forest? I haven't been impressed with them at any point throughout the season, whereas Duke has overachieved throughout. The Blue Devils, shockingly 7-4 like the Demon Deacons, are 4-0 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season. I'll take the points here but I think Duke wins outright. I have a strange feeling that Miami might win their final regular season game outright against an underachieving Pitt team, but instead I'll go with the Over. The last three Miami games have produced 48, 49, and 50 total points. If we're following the trend, I guess we're due for a 27-24 final (51 total points) one way or the other, right? Don't forget that last year's game was a shootout as well, a shocking 38-34 Miami win. As a side note, it's incredible how badly Mario Cristobal's team has been against the spread this season, 1-9!!

Game Record: 3-0 last week, 15-19 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 1 of 12 overall (-8.04 units)

BIG 12 parlay picks

West Virginia-Oklahoma State Under 64
Iowa State-TCU Under 47.5
Oklahoma-Texas Tech Over 64
Parlay Odds: +596 (1.5 units)

An Oklahoma State game hasn't exceeded 53 total points in the last month as their season has gone from promising to not great. I know West Virginia doesn't play a ton of defense, but in a likely wet Stillwater, I have a hard time seeing this total come close to its projection. Betting the Under in a TCU game doesn't usually make much sense, until you consider that the last time Iowa State played in a game that exceeded 48 total points was on September 24th. I'm expecting yet another defensive battle in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs just need to win and stay healthy before a likely re-match against Kansas State next week in the Big XII Title Game. Historical Stat of the Week time: The last time Oklahoma and Texas Tech combined for less than 64 total points was in 2012 (61). Every meeting since 2014 has exceeded 70 total points. Let the good times roll. I'm upping my unit size slightly this week for this trio of picks.

Game Record: 0-3 last week, 18-16-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 12 overall (-12.5 units)

PAC-12 parlay picks

Arizona -4 vs. Arizona State
Notre Dame-USC Over 64.5
Washington State ML (+110) vs. Washington
Parlay Odds: +665 (1 unit)

You didn't think I was going to write up this column without including my Wildcats to cover, right? Arizona hasn't won consecutive games all season but that's a non-factor this week. The 'Cats are coming off a disappointing home loss to Washington State. More importantly, Arizona hasn't beaten ASU since 2016! At their last home Territorial Cup game with fans in the stands, in 2018, my Wildcats blew a 40-21 fourth quarter lead and lost. Arizona is the better team this season (four wins to ASU's three) so I feel confident in predicting a home win to head into the offseason on a good note. 34-27 Wildcats. Since mid-October, USC's games have totaled: 85, 82, 76, 72, and 93. Notre Dame gave up 32 to Navy the other week. I think the Fighting Irish, who have been playing as well as any team in the country over the last month, will make this a heck of a game but I'd be surprised to see the winner scoring less than 38. I'll say USC wins 38-34. I wanted to pick Oregon State to beat Oregon but just wasn't confident enough in it for this column. Instead let's go to the Apple Cup where, after seeing Washington State's impressive defense in person last week in Tucson, I think they hold the Huskies potent offense to fewer than four touchdowns. If that happens, I'm not confident enough in UW's defense to stop Cameron Ward and company from scoring that amount. 31-26 Cougars. 

Game Record: 1-1-1 last week, 17-18-1 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 1 of 12 overall (-7.54 units)

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Week 13 College Football parlay picks

Mississippi State-Ole Miss Under 59
Ohio State -7.5 vs. Michigan
Pittsburgh-Miami Over 43.5
West Virginia-Oklahoma State Under 64
Oklahoma-Texas Tech Over 64
Notre Dame-USC Over 64.5
Washington State ML (+110) vs. Washington

Parlay Odds: +10067 (0.5 units)
Weekly Parlay Record: 0 of 12 overall (-6 units)

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