Ryan Tannehill injury odds fallout: Titans fall to second favorites in AFC South, down to three-point favorites Week 16 vs. Texans
The Titans could be without starting QB Ryan Tannehill for the rest of the season.
About a month ago, the Tennessee Titans were upset winners at Green Bay in Week 11 and were in control to win the AFC South for the third straight season. However, the wheels have since fallen off. Tennessee enters Saturday's game vs. Houston on a four-game losing streak and staring at the possibility of being without quarterback Ryan Tannehill for the rest of the season – which has altered Tennessee's odds across the board.
Tannehill suffered a right ankle injury in Sunday's loss in Los Angeles when Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack landed on his right foot on Tennessee's first offensive drive. Tannehill was carted off but ended up missing just one series. Alas, reports are that ankle will require season-ending surgery because the injury was to the same ankle Tannehill injured in Week 6 against the Colts. He would miss the next two games with third-round rookie Malik Willis starting in his place.
On Thursday, Coach Mike Vrabel did rule Tannehill out for Saturday's home game vs. Houston but wasn't ready to confirm a season-ending injury yet. Willis will start Saturday. The former Liberty star struggled in his first two starts, throwing for a combined 135 yards on 11-for-26 passing. The Titans did win his first start in Houston thanks to Derrick Henry going nuts, and nearly won the next week in a huge upset in Kansas City, but the Chiefs rallied for a 20-17 overtime victory. Josh Dobbs was signed to the active roster Wednesday and would be the No. 2 this week.
Tennessee was as high as a 7.5-point favorite for Saturday's game against the terrible Texans, but that's down to -3. The spread seems rather unlikely to get to -2.5, simply because of Houston's ineptitude. Vrabel said that guard Nate Davis (ankle), cornerback Kristian Fulton (groin), center Ben Jones (concussion), cornerback Terrance Mitchell (hamstring), linebacker Dylan Cole (ankle), and cornerback Josh Thompson (concussion) are also out this weekend but he hopes receiver Treylon Burks and cornerback Tre Avery will be cleared from the concussion protocol.
Saturday could be the coldest home game ever for the Titans in Nashville. Here's the forecast from Weather.com: "Partly cloudy skies. High around 22F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph." The Titans have never played a home game in Tennessee with a kickoff temperature below 23 degrees.
The Titans (7-7) were -145 favorites to win the division again with second-place Jacksonville at +125 before the Tannehill news, but the Jags are now -160 and the Titans +125 . The teams will meet in Week 18. Those odds will change in some form after tonight's Jaguars at Jets game. To win the AFC, Vrabel's team is now +4500 and +9000 to win Super Bowl 57.
The SportsLine Projection Model (below), drops the Titans from 8.5 wins to 8.3 without Tannehill and their division chances from 58.3% to 51.6% -- that latter number equates to -107.
| TITANS | WINS | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ Tannehill | 8.5 | 50.00% | 58.30% | 59.30% | 2.90% | 1.00% |
| w/o Tannehill | 8.3 | 48.80% | 51.60% | 52.40% | 1.60% | 0.50% |
| Difference | -0.2 | -1.20% | -6.70% | -6.90% | -1.30% | -0.50% |
| | | | | | | |
| JAGUARS | WINS | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Tannehill Healthy | 7.6 | 44.70% | 39.10% | 41.00% | 1.70% | 0.60% |
| Tannehill Out | 7.7 | 45.30% | 47.90% | 49.70% | 2.30% | 0.80% |
| Difference | 0.1 | 0.60% | 8.80% | 8.70% | 0.60% | 0.20% |
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