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Broncos vs. Titans NFL Week 10 odds, trends: Possible Ryan Tannehill return pushing lowest total of season back up

Denver at Tennessee on Sunday has seen the total move quite a bit this week.

Matt Severance

The Tennessee Titans haven't had starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill for the past two games because of an ankle injury and as of this writing it's not clear whether he will play Sunday at home vs. Denver. That being said, Tannehill took part in a limited practice on Wednesday and was a full participant on Thursday, so it seems quite possible he will return. Because of Tannehill's uncertain status and the hugely struggling Broncos offense, the total of 36.5 at Caesars Sportsbook had been the lowest of the season (opened at 40), but has since risen to 37.5.

If the total were to drop a half-point by kickoff, know this: Since 2019 in games with totals of 37 points or fewer, the Under is 10-4.

Tennessee had become the league's most run-heavy team the past few weeks while starting raw rookie Malik Willis at quarterback. In a 17-10 victory in Houston in Week 8, Willis attempted only 10 passes and completed six for 55 yards and a pick. Tennessee ran the ball 45 times, with Derrick Henry carrying 32 times for 219 yards and two scores.

Last Sunday, the Titans were 14-point underdogs at Kansas City and almost won but some late Patrick Mahomes magic tied the game, and the Chiefs then prevailed 20-17 in overtime. Tennessee was the first 14-point underdog to force overtime since 2013 when the Buccaneers did so at Seattle as a 15.5-point underdog. Tampa Bay lost that game, 27-24.

Willis was 5-for-16 vs. the Chiefs for 80 yards with not a single completion to a wide receiver. The Titans were the first team since the 2012 Raiders with zero completions to WRs in a game. Tennessee rushed 29 times for 172 yards with Henry totaling 115 and two scores on 17 carries.

After a bit of a slow start, Henry has produced five straight 100-yard games and leads the league with 870 yards. He is the +225 favorite to win another rushing title, just ahead of Cleveland's Nick Chubb, who has 841 yards and is +250. Henry is set at over/under 106.5 yards Sunday. The books are waiting on Titans QB props.

The Under is a combined 13-3 in these teams' games this season. Denver is averaging just 15.8 points per game, its fewest through eight games since 1992. Broncos games have had an average final score total of 31.6 points, the fewest in the NFL and fewest by any team through eight games since Denver in 2006. Titans games are averaging 38.3 total points, the sixth-fewest in the league. Since Week 3, Tennessee is allowing just 16.0 PPG, fewest in the league, and 60.3 rush yards, also the fewest.

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