Cole Ragans is all good after being removed from his last start with a calf injury, which was diagnosed as just cramping and should not limit him in this outing. That means we should expect a gem from the Royals ace, as the Brewers have hit just .198/.304/.326 against lefties as a team. I'm going for more value on the K prop here rather than Over 16.5 outs, as the Brewers strike out more than 25% of the time against lefties and Ragans has reached seven Ks in four of five starts where he's thrown more than 76 pitches, but I think both are strong plays that have a great chance of hitting.

Bryse Wilson has primarily been a relief pitcher over the last two seasons and is making just his third starter over the last two seasons. In his last outing he threw nearly a career high 91 pitches, which was the most pitches hes thrown in a game since July 7th, 2022. He's never thrown more than 100 pitches in his seven year career. Wilson will face a tough KC lineup that is 10th in OPS.

Anytime were working with a K line of 7.5 or above, there is just so much that needs to go right. I would also argue that while Cole Ragans has pitched well, lines this high are reserved for the very best strikeout artists. Ragans has also been held under this line in 8 of his last 12 starts dating back to last season. The Brewers lineup does strikeout out a lot, however they also are dangerous as they as third in the the MLB in OPS.

The Brew Crew have had to withstand a lot of adversity this season and I wonder about their margins getting a little thin. They keep trying to stretch out Bryse Wilson, with so many starters out, and he went from pitching 1/3 in his 1st out to 6 IP last time out. That might catch up to him here. Cole Ragans will be tough on the Brewers from the left side and KC is 13-7 at home. Neither of these lineups are very deep so I am drawn to the advantage in starting pitcher

DraftKings has 8 for this game so definitely shop around depending on your lean, but 9 does feel a tad high considering it's Royals ace Cole Ragans on the hill. No Brewers have faced him in a regular-season game. Ragans has allowed one earned or fewer in three of his past four. Milwaukee is nothing special offensively, especially with Christian Yelich out, and was blanked Sunday in Chicago. Converted reliever Bryse Wilson has a 1.93 ERA as a starter this year for the Brew Crew compared to 4.50 out of the pen.