Nick Lodolo has been excellent after getting a late start on the season, but this will be his toughest matchup to date. The Orioles pound lefties to the tune of a 133 OPS+, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at Great American Ball Park. That could result in an approach from Lodolo where he's trying to do too much out of the zone and posts a line similar to his one mediocre outlier this season, when he walked three against Philly and lasted just five innings despite throwing 98 pitches. I'll trust Baltimore's offense to get him out early today.

This is a big price to pay in this prop, but I think it's worth it. Peralta would've topped this number in five of six starts had he not been prematurely ejected in his last outing just one out shy after only 66 pitches, and in the one outlier he allowed five runs while walking five. I don't see a start like that today against a Cubs lineup that is much worse against righties with the wind blowing in at Wrigley. Plus, the Brewers only got three innings from their starter yesterday so they'll be counting on length from their ace. I expect six innings from Peralta in this matchup.

Two lefties take the mound in this game with Matthew Liberatore making a spot start, but he's unlikely to throw many pitches in this one as his pitch count has been limited in the bullpen. That's unfortunate for the Cards, as the White Sox are far worse against southpaws and their one notable lefty reliever has pitched in two straight, likely making him unavailable. The Cards are also much worse against southpaws, and lefty Crochet has pitched far better than his 5.97 ERA suggests. He could have his longest start of the year here with the White Sox using seven relievers in yesterday's extra-innings win as well. Putting a half-unit on the woeful ChiSox getting the win today.

The Twins' win streak is up to 12 games, and while the lineup has cut the strikeouts down over the last few games, the team is still averaging more than one K per inning. It also hits more than 100 points of OPS better against lefties than righties. That bodes well for Cooper Criswell to stick around long enough in this game to get to four Ks, a small ask for any starting pitcher. Criswell's K rate in the majors this year hasn't been great, but he has a respectable 8.3 K/9 career rate in Triple-A. In this matchup, I think he should be favored to get to four Ks.

The Angels are 2-7 in their last nine games, and even though the lineup lost Mike Trout for the foreseeable future, their pitching might be an even bigger problem. Griffin Canning hasn't been quite as bad as his 7.45 ERA suggests, but he hasn't been great, and in particular he hasn't managed to pitch long into his six starts. In fact, if he hits this Over, it would be his longest start of the season, coming on the road against a very good Guardians team. We also have weather implications with rain the forecast that adds at least some potential for Canning's start to end early.

Alek Manoah makes his return to the majors after a gem in his last Triple-A start, but one start can't outweigh the struggles of his previous four rehab starts plus his awful 2023 season. The Nationals score more runs per game than the Jays already and have been the hotter team over the last 10 games, plus they've had the more productive bullpen and a starter who has pitched well at the major-league level this year. The Nats should be favored rather than being considered 50/50 at most books, and they definitely shouldn't be 'dogs at FanDuel.

John Means takes the mound for his season debut, and while he's struggled during his rehab work, I'm more interested in attacking the pitcher on the other side. Andrew Abbott's strikeout rate is down this season after his quality rookie campaign, and he's managed more than four Ks only twice in six starts. He's up against an outstanding Orioles lineup that has posted a 134 OPS+ against southpaws while striking out in less than 23% of plate appearances. At that rate, a pitcher needs to face at least 26 batters to rack up six Ks, something Abbott did three times in 21 starts last year and none this year. In a tough matchup, I don't think it's very likely he'll get the chance today.

The Angels took the series opener with surprising ease, but I'll back Cleveland, a team that's 16-7 in games decided by multiple runs, to bounce back today against Reid Detmers, a talented lefty who has been lit up in his last two starts. The Guardians excel against southpaws (118 OPS+ vs. 99 against righties), so I expect Detmers' tough run to continue. The Angels lineup just isn't very threatening without Mike Trout, and Ben Lively owns a 2.30 ERA and 19:3 K:BB in his three starts. I'd be surprised if this money line doesn't close higher.

Ozzie Albies has a 14-game hitting streak going, and he's gotten 2+ bases 11 times in that stretch with eight doubles and three other two-hit games. He gets to face a pitcher in Gavin Stone with massive righty/lefty splits, holding the former to a .504 OPS (59 PAs) while the latter lights him up for a .923 OPS (50 PAs). That's good news for the switch-hitting Albies, who owns an .895 OPS against righties this year. We shouldn't be getting plus odds here.

JP Sears got smoked in his last start in Baltimore but had been pitching well prior to that outing, with just one run allowed in 17.1 innings over his previous three starts. He has a fantastic matchup today in the friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum against the Marlins, who have just a .570 OPS against lefties this year. They have just one hitter with better than a .650 OPS in more than 10 plate appearances against southpaws, so there just aren't many trouble spots in this lineup for Sears to give up three earned runs.

The Twins have won 10 straight, and because of it, I think this money line is skewed. Those 10 wins were all against the White Sox and Angels, so be sure not to overrate them. The pitching matchup strongly favors the Red Sox, who are -125 on the F5 line, as Chris Paddack has pitched poorly aside from a gem against the lowly White Sox while Tanner Houck owns a 1.60 ERA and 41:5 K:BB ratio, allowing more than half of his earned runs this year in a single start. The Red Sox have won four of their last five and are 11-5 on the road, so I think this ML should be more of a 50/50 proposition at worst for Boston.

Ronel Blanco has pitched well since his season-opening no-hitter, allowing two runs or fewer in every start while coming one out away in his last outing in Mexico City from throwing six-plus innings in all five starts as well. He's more than capable of reaching seven Ks against the worst strikeout offense in the league, one that has surrendered at least seven Ks to eight of the last nine opposing starters, including four times in five innings or less, and the only SP who didn't manage it in that stretch threw just 61 pitches. Any solid pitcher should be juiced to Over 6.5 Ks in this matchup.

Brady Singer has posted a strong 2.62 ERA massively aided by an unsustainable .209 BABIP, and this could be the matchup where he experiences some regression. The Rangers have an excellent 110 OPS+ against righties and Nathaniel Lowe has provided a boost since missing the first 21 games on the IL. The Royals also have a well-rested bullpen after Thursday's off-day was preceded by two games where relievers only covered two innings in each. Singer has struggled with walks of late (three issued in each of last three) and has only thrown five innings in three of his last four. I think that's a more reasonable expectation than the Over juice indicates.

The Angels have lost 10 of their last 12 games despite just wrapping up a nine-game homestand, and now they hit the road to face one of MLB's best teams. Don't believe me? The Guardians are 16-6 in non-one run games, have a top-five run differential and are 11-7 against teams that are .500 or better. I don't think they're getting properly priced on the run line at home against an Angels team that's lost by two-plus runs in 15 of its 31 games and is now missing star slugger Mike Trout.

Jose Quintana has not pitched to the level of his 3.48 ERA, as a 6.00 xERA clearly shows. But this is a good spot for him to throw at least six innings. For starters, the Mets needed 98 pitches from their bullpen in an 11-inning win yesterday and have used at least four relievers for three straight days, meaning they should look to give the bullpen a little bit of a break today if possible. Quintana has a great matchup against a Rays offense that has just a 78 OPS+ (100 is average) against lefty pitchers this year, so it's an even better spot than the Rays' 3.75 runs/game average suggests. I think Quintana gets through six full innings in this situation.