Should Texas be a home dog here? The Mariners have the better pitcher, I suppose, in Logan Gilbert over Dane Dunning, but the lineups are not close. No. 1 Texas catcher Jonah Heim is back from the bereavement list. And Dunning’s lifetime .667 win percentage (16-8) at Globe Life Field is the highest ever by a Rangers starting pitcher in Arlington (minimum 40 starts at home).

Logan Gilbert has enjoyed an excellent start to the season, allowing only one earned run in three of his four starts while posting a 29:4 K:BB ratio on the year. He's had success against the Rangers in his career, including holding them to two earned runs in each of his three starts facing them last year. Even though the Rangers have a good offense, the player with the most success against Gilbert in his career is Corey Seager, who has not gotten out to a good start so far. I think the juice on this line should be on the Under, not the Over.

Cal Raleigh is batting .313 with two home runs in 16 career at-bats against Dunning. Dunning's FIP is 6.18, xERA is 6.81, and his hard-hit rate is 51.7%, which ranks as the 6th worst among all starting pitchers with at least three starts according to Baseball Savant. This is not good in a hitters' park like Global Life Field. The Rangers' available bullpen has an ERA of 5.66. You can find +300 at most books!