Jose Quintana has not pitched to the level of his 3.48 ERA, as a 6.00 xERA clearly shows. But this is a good spot for him to throw at least six innings. For starters, the Mets needed 98 pitches from their bullpen in an 11-inning win yesterday and have used at least four relievers for three straight days, meaning they should look to give the bullpen a little bit of a break today if possible. Quintana has a great matchup against a Rays offense that has just a 78 OPS+ (100 is average) against lefty pitchers this year, so it's an even better spot than the Rays' 3.75 runs/game average suggests. I think Quintana gets through six full innings in this situation.

Aaron Civale has had a rough start to the season, however he has been solid in the strikeout department and is averaging the highest K rate of his career. However if we look at his K metrics, you can make a fairly strong argument he is running hot on Ks considering he possesses a sub 10% Whiff rate and his 9.8% SwStr% is the lowest mark since the 2021 season. He will face an extremely stingy Mets lineup that has come to life lately as well.