The first line of Jay-Z’s “Ride or Die” comes to me here … “I’m rollin’ with Roc-A-Fella, man.” And that’s what I’m doing Monday night, ride or die, I’m rollin’ with this Dobbs fella, man. The Bears looked impressive last week taking the Lions to their limit, though they ultimately lost. What impresses me about Minnesota is how the defense has stepped up creating avenues for Joshua Dobbs and the offense to make impactful plays. The Vikings have covered six straight. This will be decided by which team gets more pressure on the QB, and I like Brian Flores to get his guys in Justin Fields’ head – and pocket – all game. I’m rollin’ … wait, you already know who I’m rollin’ with here.

Fields is a one read QB. After that he takes off. Plus the Vikes BLITZ and he is worse than Zac Wilson against the blitz (go ahead and reread that sentence). This number is high but I’ll still go over. And I’ll hope for no kneel downs at games end

Vikings safety Josh Metellus is coming off his worst-graded game, and I like him to bounce back strong at home. He had eight combined tackles in the first meeting with Chicago and has cleared this total in eight of 11 games.

The Bears called more than a dozen designed runs for Justin Fields in his return from injury in Week 11. While he probably won't exceed 100 rushing yards like he did against the Lions, the Vikings' affinity for blitzing means Fields should be taking off often, in addition to the designed running plays. In the first meeting, Fields rushed for 46 yards in a little over one half before getting hurt.

Alexander Mattison is slowly but surely losing snaps in the backfield and let’s face it, you don’t run on the Bears. He will need either a) significantly more volume than projected b) two huge plays or c) 20 percent more plays than projected to go over this total.

I’m doubling up on Hockenson, taking his yards and receptions over. You don’t run on the Bears, TJ is the Vikes #1 option and he has thrived with Dobbs. Let’s just bet on the best guy (especially when the numbers are not inflated)

Hockenson is the main guy for Dobbs and with JJ still sidelined he should continue to thrive. You don’t run on the Bears, you throw it to your best player. I’m projecting 10-11 targets; we should catch 7-8 of them.

Chandler is now becoming a bigger part of the Vikings offense and the Bears are not great v RBs. He is being talked up by the staff and is projected to catch 2 passes. 11.5 is nice value.

I can't help myself with picking kicker props, especially for these primetime games! Minnesota has been giving up field goals in bunches lately, a whopping TEN in the last three weeks combined! Plus Santos has made seven combined in his last two games. Earlier this season, he kicked two field goals against the Vikings, who have given up multiple successful three pointers in 7 of 11 games. Make it 8 of 12 tonight if all goes according to plan.

There isn't much science here as much as gut feel. Opposing defenses have been keying on DJ Moore and Cole Kmet lately, and I get the sense there will be opportunities for Mooney tonight because of it.

Hockenson was already a main cog, but with Dobbs at QB - and Jefferson still out - he's even more vital. He has 35 targets in last 3 games, and the Bears are 31st in completion % to TEs (81%). Dobbs will go to him in every key spot and the Bears LBs - who are beat up - won't break up the plays the Broncos made on him last week. You can't run on the Bears, so I see a lot of short passes to the TE to keep things moving. With No. 2 TE Oliver showing up last week, I'm thinking he gets a little more attention here. Hockenson over this in 3 of last 5. I see 10+ targets tonight.

Chandler has definitely cut into Alexander Mattison's workload of late and easily topped this number last time out -- barely missing the week before but only because he had no receptions. He had four catches last week, and Chicago has had issues with yards allowed via the pass to running backs.

We have two defenses that started the year poorly but have played much better lately. The Vikings have bought into Brian Flores scheme. Vikings D was bottom 5 in nearly every defensive metric over the first 4-5 weeks of the season but have improved across the board and presently 8th in coverage grade, 14th in EPA per dropback. MIN rush d is stout as well and are 6th in EPA allowed per rush and 12th in defensive run grade. The Bears are 4th in EPA allowed per rush and 10th in Run Stop Win Rate. Chicago has done a great job of limiting explosive passing plays and much like the Vikings D they were getting torched early in the season but have made significant improvements.

The Vikings have won the last five meetings with the Bears and covered the spread in four of them. The Bears come off a spirited Thanksgiving Day loss at Detroit while the Vikings just had a five-game win streak snapped against the surging Broncos. But the Vikings covered in a 21-20 loss. That’s six straight covers and QB Josh Dobbs is getting the job done again. He runs with a purpose and throws the ball accurately downfield. My money today is on Dobbs and the Vikings. I ask this question, the spread indicates both teams are almost equal on a neutral field, do you believe they’re equal? Vikings to cover.

Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell says Ty Chandler's "burst" is obvious and he's looking to increase his workload. Last week Chandler caught all four of his targets for 37 yards. Monday night, Chandler faces a Bears' defense that is stout against the run but gives up the most receiving yards per game (63.3) to opposing running backs. Look for Chandler to fly over this total.

Sometimes we can link a spread or totals pattern to one player. So be it with the Bears and Justin Fields, as Chicago is 6-0 over in games with Fields at QB this season. This excludes the earlier matchup vs. Minnesota at Soldier Field when Fields injured his thumb and was replaced by Tyson Bagent. The Vikings haven't been "over" that same frequency but have scored 20 or more points in their last five games, and the last four meetings at US Bank Stadium have landed over as well. Play Bears-Vikings Over

Though the Bears are still apt to blow games like they did last week at Detroit, it's been a very different Chicago the past month. The bears have been competitive and now have Justin Fields (who showed very little rust last week vs. the Lions) back in the lineup after missing more than a month with his thumb injury. The Vikings have been riding lightning with Josh Dobbs at QB, but worth noting how the Minnesota offense has bogged down in the late going of the last two games vs. the Saints and Broncos. Play Bears

The Vikings defense has been pretty solid lately, but it's unlikely they can shut down DJ Moore. Moore will be heavily targeted in this one and should get to this number on sheer volume (has a 30% target share in this offense). It's notable that Brian Flores likes to dial up the blitz and Fields has been good against the blitz. His passing efficiency is also up. All of this should inure to the benefit of DJ Moore.

Justin Fields is auditioning for the Bears, but more importantly for him, any other QB needy team in the NFL. After a long injury layoff it's time for him to flex all of his athletic muscles and he knows it. He carved up the Lions for 104 yards on 18 carries and I'll be playing his rushing attempts prop as well when it populates. Vikings run defense has improved but it's still far from elite and Fields will leverage them by getting outside the pocket. He averages around 7 rushes by the Vikings in three career games but this will be close and I think it's a day he runs 12+ times, and could flirt with 100 yards again on the ground.

The Bears pass rush is ramping up and Chandler's role keeps expanding, especially in hurry-up situations and two-minute drills. He had just 6 targets all season before catching four balls on MNF and is carving out his role in a nebulous and crowded backfield. Teams have gouged the Bears throwing to their RBs all season and Chandler could see 14 touches like last week. Adds explosion and wiggle and a new late-season wrinkle for a familiar opponent

We are on this primetime trend that shows no signs it will end. These teams played a 19-13 game earlier this season and that was with the Vikings having more quick-strike capacity then, with Kirk Cousins still at the helm. Vikings will play at a slow pace, Bears will run it a ton with Justin Fields back. Vikings games are 8-3 to the under and MNF is 12-1 to the under with an average score of 37.4. Both defenses are much improved since their first meeting in Week 6. Vikings have allowed over 21 just once in the last six games. Bears now have a pass rush with Sweat on the edge. Hunter will get his sacks, too. I see drive stoppers now.

The Vikings have covered six straight but are coming off a tough loss in Denver. The market is finally starting to respect them with Josh Dobbs at QB, but the market is lagging behind in its rating of the Bears. Their defense has poor season-long metrics but is trending up after recording three picks against a typically cautious QB and largely shutting down the Lions offense until the final five minutes of the game. They can help curb the Vikings offensive attack while Justin Fields makes plays as a runner and a passer. This line should be on the other side of 3.

The Bears held the Kirk Cousins-led Vikings to 4.0 yards per play in the first meeting, a 19-13 Minnesota win in which Justin Fields got hurt and was replaced by Tyson Bagent. Chicago's defense is healthy, has been bolstered by the addition of Montez Sweat, and just forced Jared Goff into his worst home performance in Detroit -- until the final four minutes. Fields was dynamic in his return from injury versus the Lions. Even with Justin Jefferson returning, Minnesota has become inflated due to its six-game cover streak. Look for the Bears to keep this close if not win outright.