Matt's Pick (1 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Nothing has changed here. The Avs still have a goaltending problem, although they sure seem to have Connor Hellebuyck's number. Still, we are getting +1.5 at about the same price as Avalanche ML. So in OT while you ML bettors are sweating a cash, I'll be sweating in the hot tub and trying to go back to the 80s. Could really use some El DeBarge.
Kawhi Leonard figures to be a bit more in rhythm with a game under his belt as well as a few practices, while the Mavs will be without Tim Hardaway Jr. and are listing starting big Daniel Gafford as questionable Friday. Since about March 20, the Clippers have been much better on the road than at home. Overall this season, LA was first in the NBA on the road in three-point shooting (39.8%) and in free-throw shooting (82.8%).
Think the Canucks are toast in this series with No. 1 goaltender Thatcher Demko ruled out for Friday after also missing Game 2 with an injury -- and it sounds like he will not return this series after winning the opener. Casey DeSmith is a solid No. 2 but a massive downgrade as we saw in Game 2 when he allowed a goal on Nashville's first shot as the Preds won 4-1 in Vancouver. DeSmith also struggled some at the end of the regular season. Really tough break for the Pacific Division champs.
The A's are a scrappy bunch, we will give them that. Cost us on this play last night at Yankee Stadium but man tough spot here with Ross Stripling (0-5, 5.34) opposed by Corbin Burnes (3-0, 2.76). The O's also were off on Thursday.
Won't be playing look-ahead totals very often but the winds are expected to be blowing in at Comerica Park for the Friday matinee and KC starter Seth Lugo has a 2.03 ERA. The Tigers are hitting just .214 at home. Their pitcher, Reese Olson, has made just one home start this year and it was quality. I think this will close at 8 across the board so wanted the hook now.
If the Islanders are going to get one, it figures to be this one. The Canes lost one of their top defenseman, Brett Pesce, to an injury in the Game 2 comeback win. Winger Jesper Fast missed the first two and not expected back. The Isles are giving Ilya Sorokin his first shot in net of the series. He didn't have a typically great year but historically has been money at home. The Islanders are in an identical situation to last year, trailing 2-0 in the series to the Hurricanes, and they responded with a 5-1 win in Game 3 on home ice. The Isles also ended the regular season with five straight road wins. And we don't even need that.
We generally do not get odds feeds of alternate totals, etc. on any sport, but we are getting one from Bet365 on this total -- hence the crazy juice (on 5.5 goals, the Under is -115). I'll be surprised if this goes Over 6.5 barring a 3-3 regulation tie, so I'm going to take the rare opportunity.
The Knicks are up 2-0 despite Jalen Brunson shooting under 30 percent from the field thus far. Don't believe they win on the road if that continues. Obviously a desperation spot for the Sixers, who will get a bit deeper with the expected series debut of guard De'Anthony Melton after he practiced Wednesday. He will be listed questionable just like Joel Embiid surely will.
If I had any Pirates gear, I would be in mid-burn after their bullpen blew a sure runline cover this afternoon. Can't end the day like that. Oakland's Alex Wood has been one of the worst pitchers in the American League at 0-2 with a 7.89 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. Aaron Judge has not faced him, but it sure feels like a guy Judge would take deep (if Judge is healthy that is). New York's Nestor Cortes has not allowed an earned run in two home starts spanning 15 innings.
We aren't going to get totals of 6.5s often in the playoffs; the first two games of this series both ended 3-2 in favor of Florida. The Panthers also did lose a top-six forward to injury in Game 2 in Sam Bennett (20G, 21A in regular season). He's out at least a week. Personally think the only way this loses Thursday is if we get the dreaded 3-3 regulation tie.
The Magic can't possibly score less/shoot worse at home than they did the first two games in Cleveland, and they were a tremendous 29-12 in Orlando during the regular season. Might be a bit easy for the Cavs to be a bit asleep at the wheel with two such easy wins so far -- they haven't even TRAILED. Cleveland did lose four of its final five regular-season away games.
Bryce Harper is back from the paternity list and ace Zack Wheeler is on the hill for the Phillies. Anytime I can play the Phils' first five and avoid their still very shaky bullpen is just fine by me. Wheeler took a no-hitter into the eighth inning last time out but that almost doesn't count because it was against the White Sox. He has a 2.98 ERA career vs. the Reds.
End of a seven-game trip for the Brewers so a natural letdown spot ahead of a return home for one of the series of the season vs. the Yankees. A couple of regulars are getting the day off and Christian Yelich remains out injured. Just found out the Pirates are the only team in the majors this season to not lose a game where they scored at least four runs. Starting pitcher Mitch Keller is is 8-4 with a 3.09 ERA in 16 starts at PNC Park since the beginning of last season. That home ERA since the beginning of last year is the ninth-best in all of MLB among pitchers with at least 100.0 innings.
As you can see, FanDuel has juiced the over pretty hard but there were 11 goals scored in Game 1 so this seems like a no-brainer -- although I highly doubt we get double-digit goals again. The Oilers are simply an offensive juggernaut on home ice, while LA netminder Cam Talbot has allowed three or more goals in five of his last six games. Apparently he's likely to start again but with a short leash.