Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence expects to play tonight. Whether he’s in or out, the Jaguars may struggle moving the ball against a New Orleans defense holding opponents to under 300 yards of total offense. The Saints offense is averaging 18.2 points per game while holding their opponents to 16 points, as Derek Carr continues to struggle finding his way in this offense. New Orleans has a good front seven to bring pressure on Lawrence if he’s good to go.

The Saints actually have relatively good injury news at least in terms of guys who were questionable as pretty much all of them will play, led by Jamaal Williams, Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu. Trevor Lawrence will also play for the Jags but think those NO pass-rushers might dive at that knee? JAX is without its starting left guard, No. 3 wideout and No. 1 cornerback Tyson Campbell. There's also the crowd/road factor: It's the first true road game since Week 1 for Jacksonville, which doesn't seem possible, but it has either been home or in London since then.

Perhaps I’m overthinking this – the Jaguars have been great winners for us over the last three weeks – but they are in a tough spot on the road during a short week. This after a hard-fought home win coming off back-to-back games in London. The rest aspect should not be overlooked, and it’s their first true road game since Week 1. Trevor Lawrence is active but could be one wrong move away from exiting, especially given his OL will be down two starters. The Saints have been strong against the pass, and they’re home after a tough two-week road stretch. Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu and even Jamaal Williams are active. I’ve been back and forth, but New Orleans at home is the play.

The Saints are 6-0 to the Under, using what has become their signature blend of sterling defense and inefficient offense to keep scoreboard operators sitting on their hands most of the time. But the Jags have quietly become a funnel for Overs despite their 3-3 mark against the total. Last week, they allowed 354 yards and 20 points to a short-handed Colts club that committed 4 turnovers. With both clubs banged up on both sides of the ball and on short rest, look for a little more offense than the matchup presents at first glance.

This number is too low. The injury shouldn’t hamper his ability to throw. And If he runs less, that means more passing yards. Go Over.

With top Jaguars cornerback Tyson Campbell out, I now like this prop. Chris Olave should get eight-plus targets, so five catches is reasonable.

New Orleans draws the Jags at the perfect time; fresh off playing their third game in 12 days that included a road trip to London, a home divisional clash against the Colts and now traveling on a short week with Trevor Lawrence less than 100%. The Saints haven't been great this season as too many drives are bogging down in the red zone, but their depth at WR should pose problems for a Jags defense that is 21st in total D, 23rd in YPP, and 23rd in yards per attempt. The Saints find a way at home to sneak out a win and cover.

Evan Engram has been a very reliable target for Trevor Lawrence this season however I think this number should be 15.5 at most. First and foremost, Engram has a super shallow ADOT of only 4.4 yards. To put that number in perspective, it is 18th percentile at the TE position. The Saints play excellent coverage and also tackle very well which should limit Engram's YAC ability.

If the Saints were ever going to find themselves putting it all together, tonight could be it. Whether we see only Trevor Lawrence under center for Jacksonville or C.J. Beathard gets some reps, New Orleans could find themselves with a lead in the 2nd half...which leads us right to Taysom Hill. I trust him with this number in any game script but especially in what should be the probable. This is why you paid him.

Regardless of quarterback, Travis Etienne will be a safety net. His receiving yard average has gone up 50% from last season. And whether it is an immobile Trevor Lawrence or CJ Beathard, they will be looking for the short pass to Etienne. With Zay Jones out, the running back averages 24 receiving yards. The Saints are allowing 28 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs on top of that. In a game with a lot of question marks, look for Etienne to be a constant.

Regardless of who plays QB for the Jaguars, Travis Etienne figures to draw several targets. He's averaging four targets and it's hard to run against New Orleans (3.9 ypc allowed). Moreover, Saints linebacker Demario Davis (knee) didn't practice this week and is questionable. Per PFF, Davis is the 12th-best cover linebacker in the NFL and by far the best on the Saints.

Going to throw a small play here because Jamaal Williams is now expected to play and certainly will siphon off some carries, and rookie Kendre Miller might get a few as well. The Jags are excellent against the run so the Saints might give it up at some point and start with a short passing attack -- and I'm already on Kamara Over 30.5 receiving yards. As a bonus, this way I'm semi-covered on that first prop if he gets hurt early.

Linebacker Devin Lloyd was a first-round pick last season, and he started off 2023 well until suffering a thumb injury in Week 3. He had surgery, missed two games, and returned last week with nine tackles and two passes defended. The Saints' run-heavy offense, as well as their tendency to throw short, should give Lloyd plenty of opportunities for tackles.

The Saints remain in a fight with UL-Monroe for the dullest offense in Louisiana. The attack has not appreciably upgraded with Derek Carr at the controls, and even the re-introduction of Alvin Kamara into the mix hasn't provided the expected jolt. Meanwhile the Jags appear on the ascent but there is the question tonight off Trevor Lawrence, a game-time decision with his knee which means it could be CJ Beathard Time tonight. In any event, we look "under" because New Orleans seems to own a patent (Saints " under" 6-0 this season and 14-2 back to midseason 2022!). Play Jags-Saints "Under"

Obviously having Trevor Lawrence enhances the chances of the Jags to cover the spread. But the focus should be on the Jags defense, which mirrors Saints defense from an athleticism standpoint. Where the Jags have an advantage is with their defensive pass rush against a beat up Saints offensive line, coupled with a skittish-in-the-pocket-QB in Derek Carr.

If Jamaal Williams returns for the Saints, Kamara should be used slightly more as a receiver out of the backfield (but then he's not nearly as good of value as an anytime TD scorer) against a very good Jacksonville run defense. Kamara probably tops this even if no Williams.

Jamaal Williams, who hasn't played since Week 2 due to a hamstring injury, is questionable for Thursday Night Football. His return would cut into Alvin Kamara's workload. If Williams remains out, Kamara still faces an extremely difficult matchup on the ground. The Jags own the third-best run defense and allow opposing RBs just 3.4 yards per carry. Kamara has gotten 41 carries the past two weeks (52 touches), and now he's playing on a short week behind a makeshift O-line. Look for the Saints to reduce his carries and use him more as a receiver.

Olave has four games of 10+ targets this season and in each, he has at least six receptions and 86 yards. He has a 24.1% target share, 40.8% air yards share, and is second among all WRs in deep targets and deep air yards. Plus Jacksonville's defense has surrendered five games of 95+ yards to opposition WRs and eight total above this number. I think Olave has a nice night with another 80+ yard performance.

As of the time of this pick, it's still unclear if Trevor Lawrence is playing on Thursday, but I like my chances regardless. If Trevor Lawrence does play, this line will move up a bit so we may be grabbing some value at this number. However, even with Beathard at the helm, Kirk can get this number against a Saints defense that is stout against the run and will force Beathard to utilize his arm. Add to that Zay Jones is out again and the Saints defense is better against boundary receivers than slot receivers (where Kirk lines up over half the time) and I think we have the path to our over.

NO Under 12 in a row and 16 of 17. Just 5 Pass TD all season. Kamara looks rundown. Taysom Hill running ball in RZ! Love it. Jags on a shorts week just removed from 2 weeks in London will lead to some issues. Saints games average 34 total points. Jags 5 straight Unders in Prime Time and under 3 in row on short week

Jags have won 5 in a row on the road and have the London trip behind them now. Saints offense is broken and no redzone thrust and love to settle for FGs. Trevor Lawrence can manage game through screens. Jags 8-3 ATS Last 11.

Alvin Kamara likely isn't going to get 19 carries like he did last Sunday in Houston. Not against Jacksonville's third-ranked rushing defense, and not with Jamaal Williams potentially returning from IR. But he should be heavily involved as a receiver. Kamara is averaging just over eight targets in the three games he's played, including a three-target outing in the 34-0 blowout of New England. The Jags give up the sixth-most targets, fourth-most catches and eighth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs. With tight end Juwan Johnson likely out again and Derek Carr playing behind a makeshift O-line, Kamara should get a slew of quick throws.

The Saints are dealing with key O-line injuries, but the Jaguars' situation is worse. Not only is Trevor Lawrence (knee) iffy at best, putting C.J. Beathard in line to start a game for the first time since 2020, but Jacksonville will be without starting corner Tyson Campbell (hamstring). The Jags also could be missing offensive linemen Brandon Scherff and Walker Little and wideout Zay Jones. Those are downgrades for an offense ranking 20th in yards per play (4.9).

Quite simply, the Jags should be favored. They have won three straight outright, twice by margins in the mid-teens and the other over Buffalo. The Saints have fallen in three of their last four, with the lone victory against lowly New England. New QB Derek Carr has had minimal impact as New Orleans’ offense has managed just eight touchdowns in six games. Starting tackles James Hurst and Ryan Ramczyk did not return Sunday after sustaining injuries. Entering a short week, their status is uncertain. Circumstances on the O-line could be dire given that a starting guard was shifted to tackle for his first pro snaps there and a rookie backup slid in at guard.

The Jaguars just scored 37 points and the Saints 13, but I'd argue their underlying offensive performances in Week 6 should be flipped. Jacksonville had just three drives of more than 25 yards, while the Saints had seven drives of more than 40 yards. The Jaguars defense is just 23rd in yards per pass and 28th in sack rate, and the big win over the Colts was built on awful Gardner Minshew interceptions that aren't repeatable when projecting forward. The Saints defense has been elite all year, though they've played a lot of limited offenses. However, the Jaguars might qualify as such, ranking just 20th in yards per play and now facing a potentially injured Trevor Lawrence on a short week. Take the Saints.

The Saints almost never allow more than 20 points in a game -- once in past 14 -- and there's the possibility that Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence could sit with a knee injury suffered today. T-Law downplayed it and it may be nothing, but I like Under at this number regardless so I'll just take it now in case it plummets if the Jags play it safe with their franchise QB on a quick turnaround.