Herro was awesome in the play-in win over Chicago and blew past this number, but considering the Celtics don't have to worry about Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, they can focus their excellent defenders such as Jrue Holiday and Derrick White on Herro. Both the SL Model and our AI model have Herro landing Under this.

It's not as if the Heat have never played without Jimmy Butler before. Though Erik Spoelstra would much rather have Butler (and G Terry Rozier, nursing a sore neck and iffy for today) available, Miami has usually fared decently whenever without "Playoff Jimmy," as the case in the Friday play-in vs. the Bulls when rolling 112-91. UCLA rookie Jaime Jaquez, Jr (21 points) continues to impress, and Tyler Herro remains a true spark for the offense. Boston will be primed after getting KO'd by Miami in the East final last spring, but that's also built into the spread; the "total" appears more reasonable, especially as both have been going consistently "over" (Miami 10-2 last 12, Boston 13-4 last 17). Play Heat-Celtics "Over"

Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are out, and Duncan Robinson is questionable. Tyler Herro will run the offense and he has dished out 26 assists in his last three games. While this is an incredibly tough matchup, Herro's heavy usage should get him to 6-plus assists.

Jaylen Brown has been the Celtics best player over the second half of the season. He also is exactly the type of player that typically gives Miami's excellent interior defense fits. The Celtics are likely highly motivated to put away Miami after getting upset by Miami last season. Jaylen Brown should play upwards of 40+ minute and this line is simply a couple ticks too low for the All-Star wing.

Miami is coming off a huge performance to get into this series and all the talk is about how they're going to grind Boston down again. They might do that, but not in Game 1. Boston is ready to set the tone and will run Miami out of the gym to start the series.