Bit surprised that the playoff-tested Heat are getting this many points as would it really surprise anyone if they won outright? Jimmy Butler loves sticking it to his former club. Yeah, the Sixers are on an eight-game winning streak but Joel Embiid is not 100 percent. Bam Adebayo is a worthy post opponent. Philly's De'Anthony Melton just returned from injury yet is out tonight. No Terry Rozier but Duncan Robinson is back for the Heat.

Tyrese Maxey averaged 27.3 points and 8.3 assists in the regular season versus the Heat. In the last meeting, he played 41 minutes as Philly won 109-105 in Miami. With so much at stake Wednesday, look for Maxey to play about 40 minutes and clear this prop total.

Win or lose look for Coach Spoelstra to have a playoff twist to his lineup today. After all in the Heat’s last two matchup against Philadelphia they lost, and had issues scoring. Minus Terry Rozier someone else needs to step up. Nikola Jovic down the stretch of the season had three games of eighteen or more points. In the month of April alone he is averaging twelve points. Take his over tonight in the points prop market.

Across the six games that Herro played since returning from a foot injury, he averaged 5.2 rebounds and 5.0 assists. That was despite logging fewer than 30 minutes in three of those games. He should play a ton against the 76ers since Terry Rozier (neck) has been ruled out. The first time Herro faced the 76ers this season, he recorded six rebounds and five assists over 38 minutes. The second time, he posted seven rebounds and seven assists over 38 minutes. Take the over here.

We acknowledge that both West play-in games last night landed on the "under" side, though both were dealing with "totals" significantly higher than tonight in Philly. Recent trending for both the Heat and Sixers has been "over" as each was ascending down the stretch, especially the Sixers, bringing an 8-game win streak into tonight, and keeping Joel Embiid in one piece in the process. As noted, however, Miami has been consistently "over" (9-1 last ten) the past couple of weeks as the Heat has been playing more uptempo even minus a hurting Terry Rozier. Meanwhile, percolating Philly is scoring at a brisk 119 pg clip across the win streak, and note the recent April 4 game vs. Miami landed on 214. Play Heat-Sixers "Over"

1. Jimmy Butler kills the Sixers on the offensive end (28/8/6) in playoffs last y3ar. 2. The Sixers score 15 ppl a game more with Embid 3. The Sixers give up MORE points with Embid. Embid should shoot some FTs and this number should go up

The 76ers have fought back and shown what they're made of with their star Joel Embiid playing, covering 10 straight and winning eight straight. They beat the Heat by five at Miami during the streak. Embiid sat out the last game at home against Brooklyn but he's good to go and ready for the challenge of the playoffs. Sixers cover this game.

Tyrese Maxey has given the Miami Heat fits to the tune of averaging 27 points over his last seven head to head matchups, including three consecutive 30 point games. Despite Miami being an excellent defensive team, based on my observations they lack the lateral quickness to stay in front of Maxey who plays very aggressively and is constantly attacking the rim. I expect another big effort and performance from Maxey in a must win game with massive stakes.

The journeyman found his role in Philly when Joel Embiid was out, but also continued to score regularly even with the big man back. Can get very hot shooting the three-ball, and can get to the hole himself as well. He averaged 18.5 in 4 games vs Heat, averaged 19/G in April and has 17+ in 12 of the last 15 games he played (went under on Sun but also was a 30-point win cakewalk where starters let up). Had 22 vs MIA in the last meeting

The playoffs are when the Heat come alive. They were in the Play-In Tournament last season and ultimately advanced to the NBA Finals. Jimmy Butler tends to coast through the regular season, but he goes to another level when the lights are the brightest. He also loves to stick it to his former team. When the Heat faced the 76ers in the 2022 Eastern Conference Semifinals, Butler averaged 27.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists to help his squad advance to the next round. Give me the points, and I also don’t mind taking the Heat to win outright.

Philly survived the loss of Joel Embiid and thrived when he returned; In an all-or-nothing scenario, at home, with their giant back, I love them. Heat are bad 4th quarter team, Heat's defense slipped and Heat out of sorts before Tyler Herro returned and again after. I didn't love Bam and Jimmy down the stretch. More to the point, I never got the sense late this version of the Heat thought they could do what they did last year. Sixers 33-18 ATS as favorite; 29-17 w/equal rest while MIA 18-25-1