This is simply me thinking the Sox should not be getting +1.5 -- and at some books they aren't. Tampa Bay's bullpen could be really short-handed as the team's main guys have all been used the first two games of the series. Cooper Criswell is only about a five-inning guy for Boston but has a 2.10 ERA. Because the Sox didn't lead after the sixth inning last night, their bullpen is in much better shape.

Cooper Criswell has been getting the work to pitch into that 5th inning and the Red Sox are 5-0 in games he starts. At only 3.5 for his strikeouts line, after striking out 9 last time out, I think the number is too low here. Criswell has been at 4+ strikeouts in 4/5 starts so far this year, only missing against the Guardians. He's also received around 80ish pitches of work his last few starts, which gives me confidence he'll at least be around long enough to give us a good shot at a 4th strikeout vs the Rays.