I'm super-late to the Phillies party because I frankly think they are somewhat overrated but hard to argue with the results, and I've been missing out. Totally jinxed now. Still was on the fence here but Mets leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo was scratched, so why not at this price. Former Met Taijuan Walker has gotten better in each of his three starts this year for the Phillies.

Jose Quintana's numbers do not look good and his underlying metrics paint a very worrisome picture. On the surface, Quintana has failed to throw 5 Ks in a single start this season. However if we look under the proverbial hood, I would argue hes actually run a bit hit in the stirkeout department. Quintana possesses a dismal 6.9% SwStr% and his 84.1% contact rate are both career worst marks. He will face a Phillies lineup who hes struggled against historically.

The Phils lineup is rockn and rolling and this version of Quintana isn't nearly as sharp as years past and I love the way Philly is playing at home (16-7). They have won 8 of 10 and their +72 run differential is second in the NL. The are getting plenty of shots in on the Mets bullpen in this series already. Walker hasn't been special for the Phils but they've won all 3 of his starts. Phillies have the 2nd best OBP vs lefties and Quintana has been getting into trouble allowing too many men to reach base. He's allowed 12 ER in 2 starts this month (7 2/3 IP)