Getting this play out ASAP as this was my threshold regarding the juice I am willing to pay and this game starts shortly. Love this spot to fade Bradish against one of the stingiest lineups in the league. I would also suggest that Bradish is running above expectations on strikeouts, albeit small sample. Shop around but this is a fantastic spot to fade him.

Getting the O's only -125 at home means I have to play something even though Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi has been very good this season. A lot of Orioles hitters have good career splits off him. This may well get rained out like last night's did when Chris Bassitt was to pitch for the Jays and we liked that much better. The O's have been very good at home vs. lefties like Kikuchi, though.

As detailed in the HR prop write up, this is a vert favorable match up for Mountcastle and this scuffling O's lineup is bound to breakout soon and their HRs tend to come in bunches.

Mountcastle is a 30 HR guy whose value is up here because it's been more doubles than HR this season. But he has destroyed TOP pitching in his career (15 HR and 43 RBI in 53 G with a .323/.387/.607 slashline) and he crushes this lefty. I know Kikuchi has been better since coming back from injury last year, but Mountcastle is 7/15 off him with 4 homers and 8 driven in. I like him to get out of a slump vs a familiar lefty here and go opposite field into the flag court. He's been clearly try to go oppo a lot lately