I almost forgot that John Means was like alive as he has pitched so rarely the past few years due to injury. His 2024 debut last weekend was spectacular with seven shutout innings in Cincinnati. If he's that guy, the Orioles might be World Series bound as their only real question is the rotation. Snakes pitcher Ryne Nelson (2-2, 5.23) is nothing special.

That was some reappearance by John Means last weekend in Cincinnati, tossing three-hit, shutout ball thru seven innings of an eventual 2-1 Birds win over the Reds. That was just another in a succession of recent Baltimore wins, and upping the O's to 17-6 across their last 23 games. Meanwhile, the oddsmakers might still be overvaluing the D-backs just a bit, perhaps due to their sweep at Cincinnati before hitting Baltimore. But they were predictably cooled last night, and Ryne Nelson has had too many shaky efforts on the mound to trust him to outpitch a new-healthy Means. Play Orioles on Run Line

O'Hearn destroys RH pitching his home park is well constructed for him. This lineup was routinely producing three HRs/game (mostly from the left side) during it last homestand and I expect that to continue here. O'Hearn at home vs RHP has a .568 SLG and .976 OPS. With him in the three or four hole, you have to pitch to him even when you don't want to. I think he gets Ryne Nelson (who allowed 24 HRs last season!) early in this one

The MVP candidate from the left side at Camden Yards vs a spot starter righty without great stuff feels like a perfect recipe for The Gun Show to show up in a big way. Henderson hits 45.5% of his fly balls vs righties at home for a HR, among MLB leaders. He also has 56.8% hard-hit rate in that split, leading MLB. He can pull it to the short porch or smash it to center. I expect the big lefty bats in the O's lineup to get it done today

Henderson loves to take an early walk in a game and does plenty of damage getting on with extra base hits as well. Can steal second easily. Plenty of dudes to drive him home in this lineup. Also does it himself with HRs. O's lineup should feast on a mediocre right-handed starter. Has a .364 OBP in day games scoring 16 times in 17 games.

John Means was brilliant in his 2024 debut, but this is an awful matchup for a repeat. The D-Backs have extreme OPS splits based on the handedness of the pitcher, lighting lefties like Means up to the tune of a .853 OPS. This start also comes at home, where Means has been slightly worse in his career than on the road, but the other important point is that he's made just seven MLB starts since 2021 and we just can't expect this type of length unless the game is unfolding perfectly like it did in his first start and last rehab start. With Arizona having an offense that should cause trouble, I can't see Means getting through six innings despite being favored to do so.

The Orioles win a lot, they cover a ton at home and they pound mediocre right-handed pitching. The lineup is loaded with lefties and switch-hitters who mash from the left side and most of them are in good form these days. John Means was a stud in his first start of the year and the new Camden Yards suits him extremely well. D-Backs were all tied up by a lefty starter Fri night and I could see more of the same Sat. Ryne Nelson has a 5.23 ERA; he has severe reverse splits but I think BAL lefty and righty bats can do damage. Should be much warmer Sat afternoon and ball should carry better