Kansas City lefty Cole Ragans was my value pick to win the AL Cy Young at +2800 in early February, although he jumped way up to around +900 by the start of the season. He has been great. Only playing a sprinkle, though, as he is opposed by current AL Cy Young favorite Corbin Burnes. Look, I try to avoid great pitching matchups like this. Why bother when you can find mismatches all over the place? That's often my thinking in college basketball as an example. Why play UNC-Duke? But I do love me some Royals at home this year and honestly tonight's Baltimore lineup is rather blah with the likes of Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser (he is killing it) and Ryan O'Hearn out.

The Royals won yesterday and makes them 2-2 against the Orioles this year. Cole Ragan is on the mound for the Royals and they're 1-3 behind him although he hasn't allowed any runs in two starts. Bad luck in his last start no runs for six innings and the team got the loss against the Mets. The Orioles have been perfect with Corbin Burnes. They've won all four of his starts and he hasn't allowed more than three rounds in any start. Orioles are the play.

After yesterday’s 9-4 victory over the Baltimore Orioles, the Kansas City Royals have now won nine straight home games. For the Orioles they drew zero runs yesterday against Royal’s starter Alec Marsh. Now they’ll face Cole Ragans who allowed just one hit and no runs against the Orioles on April 3rd. Yet, the Orioles did win that game, as they have done in all four of Corbin Burnes outings. Take the Orioles to end the Royals home streak.

Cole Ragans shut down the Orioles earlier in April in Baltimore, giving up just one hit in 6.1 innings, and it's pretty typical for him to complete six innings. After throwing just 81 pitches in his first start for the Royals post-trade, he's made it through six innings in 11 of his last 14 starts, even twice at the end of last season where he allowed at least four earned runs in a start. That tells me that he should be a pretty good bet to get through the sixth in most starts, even against good offenses like Baltimore's.