When seed lines come out for Selection Sunday, attention gets drawn to an 8 or 9 seed that has potential to upset the top seed. Michigan State was that team this year as it began the season as a top five team. The tournament is about going on a run and your draw, and the Spartans match up well with the Tar Heels. Look for a great battle and for Tom Izzo’s Spartans at the very least to cover the number.

I'm taking a bit of a break for some mental sanity ... often happens this time of year for those of us in the profession. Just been going full "dudes in the Titanic furnace room" since the start of football season and worn out mentally. So that said. I can't lose here. Either get $$ or my Spartans knock off my most hated team in college basketball. All I can think of with UNC (non-MJ division) is wanting to punch Eric Montross and Tyler Hansbrough in the face with the same Thanos-type swipe. I guess people feel the same way about Duke (I don't, although Laettner bugged me). I really don't see a way Sparty wins this unless someone goes all Jack Gohlke.

This is not a special Sparty team that was pretty pedestrian in an overrated Big 10 much of the season. They get a lot of calls in conference and have a great home-court advantage but you can't away with that banging style as much in the big dance, this game is being played on tobacco road, the Heels are more athletic and skilled. There's a reason they are a one seed. Izzo isn't pulling this one off, and I will continue to fade Big 10 teams (expect Purdue who I think wins it all).

The Tar Heels have home-court advantage only two-plus hours from campus in Chapel Hill. That advantage isn't built into the number and deserves to be about 1.5 to 2 points. So a 3.5-point spread sounds pretty good; it's cheap. Carolina is 28-7; Michigan State is 20-14. The Heels have covered six of the last seven meetings against the Spartans. North Carolina is 35-2 in NCAA Tournament games in the state of North Carolina and 13-1 in Charlotte. This is a No. 1 seed versus a No. 8. North Carolina covers.

Carolina is better. Mich St. is almost become mythic in now they are perceived. But Carolina will win.