Luis Severino of the New York Mets has had quite a turn around to the start of the 2024 season, but today is a spot to fade. Over his last two starts on the road he has had innings of allowing three runs to the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays. In a divisional game look for that to be a factor for the Marlins. Take the Marlins as the slight home underdog.

Braxton Garrett was knocked around in his debut, but I was encouraged to see him strike out eight batters in 5.1 innings while issuing just two walks and throwing 80 pitches. That pitch count coming out of rehab gives him a great shot to get into the sixth inning again here, especially as the Mets offense has performed worse against southpaws and has scored more than two runs in the first six innings of just one of their last eight games. I think we're getting a discount on a good pitcher in a good matchup based off one start that wasn't as bad as his ERA says.