This could be a good buy low spot with Jamal Murray's status. More field-goal attempts could be in store for KCP. But regardless, he has strong home splits and strong trends against the Lakers historically. He should be able to obtain this passively, just based off the amount of time he is spending on the floor this series. The Sportsline model makes the number almost 12 with Murray in the lineup.

Lebron James continues to defy father time and is still playing at an extremely high level. They will need a Herculean effort from Lebron if the Lakers are to have any chance of extending the series to Game 6. Lebron has posted monster stat lines in elimination/close out games historically and with his back against the wall, I expect a big outing from the best player of his generation.

Lakers have nothing to lose - no team has ever come back from 3-0 down in the NBA - and have to let it all hang out on the road here. Nuggets have yet to play an A Game offensively or really come very close to it, and the slow starts have been surprising. Of the 15 games between them since start of 22-23, only 3 finished below this total and only 2 of their 8 playoff games in that span are under 217. This total is a full 10 below where Game 1 in this series closed. Lakers have been in every game, but I suspect the Nuggets push the pace in their return to altitude and I project these two each cracking 110

The Lakers obviously have to throw everything they have at the Nuggets tonight with the season on the line -- and they have been dominating in points in the paint in the past two games, so maybe they figured something out. Denver also is listing Jamal Murray as questionable. Jarred Vanderbilt has been upgraded to questionable for LA and would bring some needed additional size/fouls against Nikola Jokic. This feels like a really close game or a Denver blowout win. The Lakers have led by double digits in every game so far.

The Nuggets do not want to lose this game, which would mean they would have to close out LeBron James on his home floor to avoid a Game 7 that would come with the crippling pressure of potentially becoming the first team in history to blow a 3-0 lead. Denver plays with urgency pulls away with a familiar second-half surge as the Lakers give in to elimination at altitude.

LeBron on road in an elimination game. This means more usage. More ball in his hands. Ore drives to the hoop. More than points and rebounds .

Murray has a calf issue. And I’m not sure how much it will limit him. But at 35.5 he will need to play well and do more than score and I’m not sure any game script helps him. Under.