On the show MIke McClure made me look at this matchup. The starting pitching too good for us not to fade a 5th run

Twins starter Chris Paddack has allowed four runs over his last three starts, pitching an average of six innings. Against righties, the Mariners strike out an MLB-high 29 percent of the time. Seattle is the only team striking out more than 10 times per game. Back Paddack to fan at least six for the third time in four games.

George Kirby is who we're backing today. He's lost two of his last three starts but has only allowed one run between the three starts. All three have gone under and that's the move here, Mariners to the under is what I'm buying. All this and the fact that Chris Paddock has won his last three starts but I'm still going with the Mariners and under with emphasis on the Under.

I like this spot for Chris Paddack against a struggling Mariners lineup that possesses a below average .663 OPS against right handed pitching on the season. Paddack meanwhile has gone at least 5.1 in three of his last four starts and has pitched well on the season outside of one truly dismal start against the Orioles. Paddack has been lights out at home and will look to provide another quality start in what I consider a plus matchup.

It's not Derby Day, it's Kirby Day; I don't bet the ponies much anymore but I bet plenty of hardball and this dude cashes for us. Twins incredible luck is wearing off and they are regressing. Kirby can mow through their lineup. Seattle scoring a few more runs these days and Chris Paddack is a shell of what he used to be.