The Ravens are back home after nearly upsetting the Chiefs in Kansas City, and they need this one badly. In my simulations, Baltimore is covering 63 percent of the time. Lay the points.

The Bucs are usually a disaster on the road, and I expect the Ravens' defense to dominate on a wet, chilly day in Baltimore. Back the Ravens to improve to 7-2 ATS in their last nine December games.

The Bucs have looked good lately, but their last three have come at home. On the road, they've given up 34-48 points in every game despite only facing two teams with winning records. The Ravens have allowed 17 points per game at home, with their worst showings consisting of giving up 24 to the Saints and 23 to the Steelers. The Ravens should run all over the Bucs' 30th-ranked DVOA rush defense, and the defense is one of the best in the league, capable of keeping the back door closed.

The Ravens' defense is the best in the NFL, but this total is just too low. Baltimore can score on Tampa's porous defense, and even the top defensive units haven't completely shut down the Buccaneers' pass game. The Over is a perfect 6-0 in Tampa Bay home games. Look for it to go to 7-0.