The line’s dip from four points puts this game squarely in Denver’s corner. Last Sunday’s clunker against San Francisco could be a blip following an impressive Broncos’ run in which it won three in a row outright and, before then, led to narrow losses to both L.A. franchises and Kansas City. While Cleveland is vastly improved, it has won just once straight-up on the road. The Browns have dragged four games into overtime, so the spread of under three could come in handy for Broncos backers.

The Broncos passing attack did not look great without Emmanuel Sanders, but it's hard for a team to emotionally get over a midweek injury to a key player. This will feel like a more normal week, and they'll get to play at home where they have one of the best home-field advantages in the league. The Browns finally won a road game, but will they win another so soon? The fact that their strength (stopping the pass) matches up with the Broncos' one weakness doesn't bode well. Denver runs the ball all over Cleveland and coasts to a win at home.

The Broncos are seriously banged up: they just signed a rookie off the practice squad to help their beleaguered secondary. Grab the points with the up-and-coming Browns.

The Broncos we saw Sunday at San Francisco are really who they are, right now. They've been decimated with injuries at all positions and the product Sunday was a reflection of trying to patch up the wide receivers, offensive line, linebackers, and secondary. Once in the running for the playoffs while on a 6-1 ATS run before Sunday, they're now a bottom third team with all the new faces. The Browns, meanwhile, have some serious zip in their step, winning and covering three of their last four. Just one road win this season but throw all the bad stats out with their current form. Take the points with Cleveland.

Rookie QB Baker Mayfield has been red-hot over the last month, keeping the Browns both competitive and in the playoff picture. On the flip side, Broncos QB Case Keenum has been urged by his head coach to be a little bit more aggressive with the football and to push it more down field. Yes they lost last week to the San Francisco 49ers, but to their credit they were breaking in a new starting lineup at receiver. An additional week brings continuity and I think that matters in pro football. Close game, but I love how the Broncos defense can pressure the QB.