This has been a tough one that I've gone back and forth about all day, mostly because I have the Rams as a two-point favorite on the road against the Bears. Los Angeles has gone toe-to-toe with some of the best offenses in the league, and Chicago simply does not compare in that regard. That said, there's no disrespecting the Bears defense, a unit that should test the Rams. Ultimately, I think this game is close and a nail-biter throughout, but I want action on it. With the game late on Sunday and the Rams capable of both running and throwing -- and no snow in the forecast despite the low temperatures -- I'll go with the road favorites. See if you can get it at 2.5 before kickoff.

The Rams have just two covers since Week 3, and the Lions were inside the number for much of last week before a late score by the Rams pushed them to the cover. Chicago getting Mitchell Trubisky back is going to be a big boost for the offense and the running game. The Bears offense should have some success against a poor Rams defense, and the elite Rams offense and elite Bears defense should play to a draw. With the Bears only losing one home game, and outgaining the Pats 453-381 in that game, and with the weather likely cold in Chicago for the West Coast Rams, I think the Bears are great value.

Ignore the trends, nearly all of which point to Chicago. Even with QB Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) on the verge of returning, the offenses are on different planes. Rams QB Jared Goff is nimble enough to evade the Bears’ heated pass rush. Temperatures in the 20s will suit the home team, but the Rams have dealt with relatively wintry weather in SoCal this week. No snow is projected -- in either area.