The opening line of 3 favoring the Pats was right-on in this game, so it's pleasing for someone who was leaning towards New England to see it drop a bit. The Pats will suffer some blemishes as the season goes on, but even without Rob Gronkowski, this offense is now humming with Sony Michel and James White on the ground, and Julian Edelman returning to boost the passing game. The question for me is what happens if this game gets close late? Do you trust Mitchel Trubisky against Bill Belichick or Tom Brady against, well, anyone? Brady carved up an underrated Dolphins defense a few weeks ago and is certainly feeling himself after posting 38 points in three straight weeks. I see a couple Trubisky interceptions and a New England win.

The Bears are getting some major respect here and I'm not sure they deserve it. What's more is that the Patriots are being treated like they're on some decline because they lost back-to-back games on the road, their only two road games of the season. Neither of those road games had Julian Edelman playing and since then the Pats have won three straight. Once this line dropped to -2.5, I was sold. Patriots are the play.

The Patriots aren't as strong a play on the road, and I don't see them coming out and throwing a huge number on the board against the No. 1 DVOA defense after a shootout on Sunday night. Right tackle Marcus Cannon is out for the Pats, and Khalil Mack avoided a final injury tag after missing practice early in the week. I expect a rough week for Tom Brady, and the Bears offense should have success after putting together back-to-back quality games. The weakest unit in this game is New England's defense, and that matters on the road.

For fence-sitters when the spread stayed at three points, it’s time to jump off. Chicago LB Khalil Mack could force old man Tom Brady to scramble, but an ankle injury might limit the devourer of passers -- if he plays at all. New England is prone to being overbet. This seems like the exception to the rule, what with the Patriots totaling at least 38 points in their last three outings. On defense, New England is notorious for confounding young QBs such as Mitch Trubisky with subterfuge. The Bears might be on the rise, but this is too big an ask for them.

The Patriots' offense looked unstoppable the past three weeks, but now they're going on the road to face a tough defense that just got embarrassed. The Bears' defense has been particularly stingy at home, and they'll force enough mistakes to get a cover.