The Steelers had their eight game win streak come to an end last week with a controversial 27-24 loss against the Patriots. It was their fourth straight game where they failed to cover. Tom Savage is out for Houston and Antonio Brown is out for the Steelers. I'm expecting this to be a defensive game with both offenses shooting themselves in the foot. Under is the top play here.

The Steelers have failed to cover their last four games and I'll fade them again as they're laying a big number on the road. With speculation swirling around Bill O'Brien, look for a huge effort from the Texans and take the points.

I hit the Texans in this game based on the Steelers' tendency to play down to their opponents. By that same token, I'm going to take the Under, as Pittsburgh's road games tend to finish with low totals. Here's where each of their seven roadies finished in terms of the total this year: 39, 40 (OT), 35, 32, 35, 37, 43. Considering the Texans are starting their third-string QB, and that they've scored more than 16 points just once since Deshaun Watson's injury, this Under might be the safest bet on the board this week.

Houston has been a terrible team since losing stars on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, but this is the Steelers we're talking about. They play down to their level of competition all the time. They're 1-4 this year when favored by more than seven points. With Antonio Brown out, their best bet is to rely on the run game, but Houston is actually sixth in rush defense DVOA. Playing on Christmas Day against a team they're expected to throttle and missing their best player on offense and defense, Pittsburgh will have a tough time covering here, as they typically do as big favorites.

Pittsburgh is notorious lately for substandard performances on the road against lesser opponents. The blame tends to fall on the offense. This season alone, games generated 39 points at Cleveland, 40 in overtime at Chicago, 35 at Detroit, 37 at Indianapolis and 43 at Cincinnati. The Under has scored on all but one of the previous 11 Steelers away games versus foes with a losing ledger — and 22 of the past 28 roadies overall. When they head to Houston, perhaps the league’s most unguardable WR will stay home. Antonio Brown (calf) is done until the playoffs, at least. Brown averages 109.5 yards per game, a remarkable statistic supplemented by two more — 101 catches this year, nine for touchdowns. The Texans can do their part to deliver an Under with another paltry offensive output. It’s hardly a secret that if you contain WR DeAndre Hopkins, who contends with Brown as the premier receiver in the NFL, you short-circuit Houston. Last Sunday, Hopkins was targeted on 13 passes. He caught a mere four amid intense coverage, and third-string QB T.J. Yates must seek out some receiving alternatives. Good luck with that. The total going in to the last five Texans games was in the 30s. They infrequently climb above 44 anymore, which makes rookie QB Deshaun Watson’s sensational showings early this season seem like a distant memory. The seven most recent Houston outings have landed Under. Another one looms.