There is no rushing attack in the NFL like the one the Saints bring into Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Thursday night and maybe only one rushing defense like the Falcons', which is ranked near the bottom of the league. Even casting that aside, which is a lot to ask, New Orleans is generally comfortable when given the opportunity to play indoors while on the road. I'm expecting a lot of points and perhaps the best Thursday Night Football game of the season. I'm also expecting Drew Bress to do work in the ATL.

Six of the last eight meetings in Atlanta have stayed Under the total and 13 of the past 16 meetings overall have seen the underdog cover. I see the Falcons playing a spirited game fighting for their playoff lives and possibly scoring almost 30 points here, but I don't see their defense stopping the Saints' running game. With Drew Brees getting play-action respect, he's shredding defenses (71.5 % comp) when he does throw. The Saints are 8-4 ATS this season with a rating that continues to soar weekly. Over is the top play.

The game will come down to third-down defense. Seeing that this is a huge matchup with a lot of playoff implications, expect the Saints' rookie Marshon Lattimore to excel while shadowing Julio Jones.

On Thursday, the Saints will aim to continue to remain perfect in the NFC South. Thus far, they're 3-0 with lopsided victories in all. They'll take on an Atlanta team that offensively has not looked like the juggernaut of a season ago. With the Falcons' defense incapable of holding teams for four quarters, it plays perfectly into the hands of New Orleans coach Sean Payton. Look for the grinding loss to the Vikings to carry over on a short week. Grab the Saints.

This is a much better spot for the Falcons, but I think talent wins out in the end and the Saints take a tough game on the road. You can essentially mark the Saints down for 20 points before kickoff, and they've scored at least 30 in four of their last five as the running game has continued to flourish. That's bad news for the Falcons, who rank 31st in rush defense DVOA and 27th in yards per carry allowed. You'd expect the Atlanta offense to make it a shootout, but they've been held under 300 yards in two of their last three games and the Saints sport an above-average defense.

In its mind’s eye, the public can see shootouts sprinkled throughout this series’ results. Last season’s games totaled 77 and 70 points. An encounter in 2015 hit 52, and one in the previous year reached 71 in overtime. But the current editions of both teams are different. The Saints’ defense, ranked 12th, is its finest in years. The Falcons’ offense drove into a ditch Sunday, registering just nine points, and has lacked the elan that powered it to the Super Bowl. Atlanta has reached the Over in just one of the past five home games. Oddly, scoring is modest with midweek Saints’ games, having stayed Under in the latest four on Thursday. This total opened at an absurd 55 but remains attractive even with the drop.

This game is basically the Falcons' season, while the Saints are coming off a marquee win that entrenched them in first in the NFC South. Elite corner Desmond Trufant has been cleared from his concussion and will play for Atlanta; New Orleans' top corner, Marshon Lattimore, likely will try to play through his ankle injury but won't be 100 percent. Atlanta will bounce back from its worst offensive performance in two years. Play the home dog.