Wish I'd jumped on this earlier, but I'll still play a rested Bengals team against a Steelers team coming off an emotional win. Back Cincy to cover its fifth straight road game.

The Steelers got a much needed win in Kansas City last week, and they could be in for a bit of a letdown in this spot. These games are always vicious, and both these teams are much better on the defensive side of the ball this year. Expect a lot of big hits and a low-scoring game, the latter of which always favors a big 'dog. Cincinnati has a slight edge in yards per play differential thanks to how well their defense has played, even early in the season when it was missing key players. The most likely result to me is Pittsburgh winning by three, so I'm happy to grab the points here.

Love going Under the total here, as both these teams are much better on defense than offense right now, and we know this is going to be a physical, violent game based on the history of this matchup. Cincy has given up 20 points just once in five games, while the Steelers have only allowed more than 18 in regulation just once in six (that five-pick game for Big Ben). Expect a lot of jabbing in the first half as these teams feel each other out, helping to contribute to the low total.

QB Ben Roethlisberger is either permanently fading or temporarily slumping, which has reduced the offense pretty much to RB Le’Veon Bell carrying the ball and WR Martavis Bryant reportedly seeking a trade. Problem is, the Bengals give up just 3.8 yards per carry, one element of their No. 2-ranked defense overall. They have won twice in succession after bowing to the Packers in overtime and are stepping out of a bye week. A game with intermittent scoring seems plausible, and that makes the 5.5 (up from 4.0) larger than it appears in your mirror. Cincy could even win outright.