The Steelers in all likelihood will win this one, but this is way too many points. Adam Gase has had success scheming against the Steelers' D in the past, and I think he'll have enough success Sunday to stay within this number.

The Steelers have a very good football team, but this is a ton of points to lay against a Miami team that has played well this year. True, they don't have a lot of wins against top-tier opponents, but they did beat the Steelers handily in October. Big Ben left that game early with an injury, but he had managed just eight points on four drives before exiting. Matt Moore has been a solid replacement for Ryan Tannehill, outpacing the starter in net yards per attempt. I like the Steelers to win this game when all is said and done, but I think we're getting about three points of value on the Dolphins.

The Steelers have won seven straight, but the first time they faced the Dolphins, Miami’s running game busted loose with more than 200 yards by Jay Ajayi. It was the first of three 200-yard games, meaning it wasn't fluky. This number is telling me we have uncertainties about Matt Moore's true rating, but his drop-off from Ryan Tannehill isn't as pronounced as books are using. At most, I make the Steelers -6, which means I have to bet it at +10 even if I didn't like Miami. But I do like the underdog quite a bit here.

In all likelihood, the Dolphins will enter the playoffs with a backup QB in Matt Moore, which is why the line is so high. But these defenses are very similar, and Miami's may even be a bit better despite the yardage numbers. This game will come down to the fourth quarter, when Big Ben will win it for the Steelers. I'll take double-digit points.