Chicago WR Alshon Jeffery is questionable with a hamstring injury. With QB Jay Cutler and RB Jeremy Langford sidelined, the Bears’ offense would be emasculated with Jeffery out and debilitated with him limping around. Detroit catches the Bears at Soldier Field in early autumn, an ideal spot on the calendar, and extra-sharp QB Matthew Stafford need not worry about inclement weather.

Against a Bears team with injuries up and down the roster, Detroit's defensive weaknesses may not matter. Just 18.2 percent of Chicago's offensive drives have ended in a score, the worst mark in the league. The one good unit in this game is Detroit's offense, which is third in DVOA, fifth in net passing yards per attempt, eighth in rushing yards per attempt and fourth in points per drive. If the Bears get up early, the Lions have the firepower to come back and win. If the Lions take an early lead, the Bears are in big trouble.

Chicago’s offense ranks 27th in yards per game. Its defense is tied for 12th in yards permitted per play. I wouldn't dare pick Da Bears against the spread, even as a home underdog, but there is an O/U play. None of their games has exceeded 48 points -- admittedly, one did hit the number on the head -- and the team is stuck with backups at QB and RB while Jay Cutler and Jeremy Langford sit. Lions ace WR Marvin Jones (hamstring) might be stuck in second gear. Outdoors, the Lions usually don't pile up points.

The Bears are a mess right now, as injuries have taken a toll on an already bad team. With quarterback Jay Cutler and running back Jeremy Langford both out, this team will have a hard time keeping up on the scoreboard with a Detroit squad that has won the last six meetings and covered five of the last seven in the series. For this Sunday, my simulations have the Lions covering 60 percent of the time.