The Patriots are awesome. Bill Belichick knew all week that Jimmy Garoppolo was unavailable, but he continued to hint that he might play as a form of gamesmanship. New England is a steal at -3.5 in my simulations as I have the Patriots winning by a touchdown with Brissett under center.

The spread has crept up with the public’s realization that Julian Edelman, Steve Grogan (Rex Ryan’s preference) or some guy pulled out of the stands will not start at QB for the Patriots. Word is, Jimmy Garoppolo will get the call. Gotta believe he will be hampered just two weeks from hurting his shoulder. I am more concerned about the loss of Bills WR Sammy Watkins (foot). Yet the offense thrived without him last week. A moderate scoring game is likely, which makes this line attractive.

The Bills picked up a huge win in Week 3, but this is a clear letdown spot for them. Who plays quarterback for New England shouldn't even matter; Bill Belichick has had extra time to prepare for this matchup, and the clear play is to take away the Bills rushing game and see if Tyrod Taylor can win in Foxborough with his arm. With Sammy Watkins battling a foot injury, that seems unlikely. If you don't like the points, the Patriots are 27-3 SU in their last 30 against the Bills, and the one recent loss came in Week 17 of 2014 when Belichick called it an early day for the starters.